DRUG CARTEL IS DOWN BUT NOT OUT, EXPERTS SAY

TIJUANA, Mexico - The high-profile capture in recent months of an
Arellano-Felix drug cartel capo, and the death of his equally powerful
brother, have forced a streamlining of the organization but not a
weakening, activists and leaders here say.

"This is a very heavy atmosphere," said Raul Ramirez Baena, human rights
prosecutor here. "It is permeated with the distribution and traffic in drugs."

U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration officials have estimated that the
Arellano-Felix organization, known as the Tijuana cartel and the largest
drug organization in Mexico, is responsible for up to 40 percent of the
cocaine consumed in the United States.

The cartel suffered with the death Feb. 9 of enforcer Ramon Arellano- Felix
in a shootout with police in Mazatlan. But doubt surrounded the incident
until police confirmed his identity, because people allegedly connected to
the family took the body and had it cremated before DNA identification
could be made.

Exactly a month later, Ramon's brother, Benjamin Arellano-Felix, the
reputed chief of the organization, was arrested in a joint raid by federal
police and army units outside a large house on a quiet residential street
in Puebla, about an hour southeast of Mexico City.

Added to that is the May 2001 extradition to the United States of Everardo
Arturo "El Kitty" Paez, a top member of the group, after a November 1997
arrest. His extradition, which occurred after a Mexican Supreme Court
ruling allowed Mexican suspects to be sent north for trial, marked the
beginning of a new trust between U.S. and Mexican authorities in drug
eradication.

That cooperation, and a new resolve by Mexican President Vicente Fox to
show progress on that front, have borne fruit in a number of arrests in
recent months. Among those arrested are other mid-to high- level members of
the Tijuana cartel, as well as members of the Gulf cartel, an organization
once led by the late "Lord of the Skies" Amado Carrillo Fuentes. They
include the March arrest of Arellano-Felix associate Manuel Herrera
Barraza, known as "Tarzan," the May arrest of Jesus Albino Quintero Meraz,
known as "El Beto," and last year's nabbing of Alcides Ramon Magana, known
as "El Metro" and wanted in the United States on drug charges.

"With the death of Ramon Arellano and the capture of Benjamin Arellano, the
Arellano cartel has been totally dismantled," Mexican Attorney General
Rafael Macedo de la Concha said after the arrest of Benjamin Arellano-Felix.

Doubt Among Locals

But in Tijuana, where people must live with the chaos and corruption of
wholesale drug-trafficking, they aren't so sure. They point to the
undiminished river of illegal drugs flowing into California as evidence
that the organization remains strong.

They even have doubts about the new binational cooperation.

"It's a fiction," said Victor Alfaro Clark, a human rights activist here.
"I talk with Mexican police officers and they tell me nothing has changed.
I talk with American officers and they tell me things are the same. Deep
down . . . the level of distrust is still very high."

And predictions of a Tijuana bloodbath among rival organizations to take
over the Arellano-Felix turf have not come true, fueling suspicion that the
family remains firmly in control.

"It's a blood family," said Jesus Blancornelas, a local journalist who has
tracked the cartel's progress and recently wrote a book about it. "All of
the family belongs to that mafia."

Some believe the Arellano-Felix brothers called too much attention to
themselves with their flashy ways and ruthlessness. Ramon has been blamed
for dozens of murders.

Blancornelas believes the events of February and March encouraged others in
the family to restructure the cartel with a lower profile and a more
businesslike, American-style approach.

"What we are seeing is management with more intelligence and less
violence," he said. "Ramon was excitable. He wasn't really a narco, he was
a killer. Benjamin was the one who managed all the business. That (model)
has ended."

Rise Of A Bloody Reign

Until February, the Arellano-Felix brothers and their entourage treated
Tijuana as their personal playground, partying until morning at trendy
discos, buying armloads of designer clothing and tooling around in
expensive cars. Some spent stretches of time in the United States, Benjamin
for as long as 10 years.

Their reign as the cocaine kings of northwestern Mexico began small in
1982, but their fame began to spread when journalists like Blancornelas
paid attention to their violent exploits and the thousands of dollars they
spent bribing officials.

In 1993, the Arellano-Felixes were implicated in the death in Guadalajara
of Roman Catholic Cardinal Juan Jesus Posadas Ocampo, who died in a hail of
gunfire as he got into his car in the parking lot of the airport.

Arellano-Felix associates were at the airport at the time the shootout
erupted, as were members of a rival drug gang led by Joaquin "El Chapo"
Guzman Loera.

The case remains open. One of the first theories from prosecutors was that
Posadas Ocampo was caught in the middle of a battle between the two gangs.

Francisco Rafael Arellano-Felix, an older brother of Benjamin and Ramon,
has spent time in prison on charges related to that killing.

Benjamin and Ramon's efforts to absolve themselves of blame in the murder
attracted even more attention: through their parish priest, they arranged
Mexico City meetings in December 1993 and January 1994 with papal nuncio
Girolamo Prigione in an effort to have the church hierarchy advocate for
them. Nothing came of the meetings, but they caused a scandal.

Blancornelas blames the Arellano-Felix gang for a 1997 attempt on his life
that killed his bodyguard, Luis Valero. Prime evidence of their
involvement, he said, is the fact that one of the 10 assailants, who was
killed in the crossfire, was David Corona Barron, alias "El C.H.," a top
henchman for the Arellano-Felixes.

Fame A Burden

The Arellano-Felix renown became a liability in recent years.

In fact, by the time Benjamin Arellano-Felix was arrested in Puebla, he was
trying to lie low, and he spent time away from his wife and child to
protect them from possible arrest. Even so, when police arrested him,
Benjamin was in front of his house, and his family was inside.

Blancornelas says the cartel's new bosses are three other Arellano- Felix
siblings: Eduardo, who has a degree as a medical doctor; Francisco Javier,
the youngest of the family, who did not go to college but is reputedly
being groomed for leadership; and Enedina, a licensed accountant credited
with buying legitimate businesses that let the organization launder drug
profits. They include furniture and household goods factories, and
pharmacies patronized by U.S. tourists looking to cut prescription drug costs.

Of the three new leaders, Enedina is the one who likely will set the tone
for future Arellano-Felix success, Blancornelas said.

"I believe Enedina is their key," he said. "To me she is a very intelligent
woman. She married and divorced, but her ex-husband remains in the family
business. As far as I know, she is the first woman in power in the cartel."

Even so, it is still too soon to predict how the cartel will hang onto its
multimillion-dollar drug business. And it is still too soon for law
enforcement to claim victory.

"The cartels have an enormous capacity to adapt and transform themselves,"
Alfaro Clark said. "In these weeks, they are going to be transforming their
structure; they will enter a process of transition before re-emerging."