TEXAS PRISON POPULATION GROWS 1.5%

AUSTIN - Texas' prison population has grown 1.5 percent compared with
this time last year, putting the number of inmates in state prisons at
147,000, about 2,000 more than expected.

The increase coincides with a drop in the percentage of eligible
inmates being released on parole, and it could put another strain on a
tight state budget.

Prisons officials play down the population growth and say they still
could cut their two-year budget next year, as promised when they
thought the inmate population would be lower.

"It could be a quirk," said Larry Todd, a Department of Criminal
Justice spokesman. "This is a short-term increase, and it's just too
early to tell if this has any lasting impact."

The department has proposed cutting its $5.2 billion budget by $60
million in the 2004-05 budget cycle. Budget watchers say any savings
would disappear if the prison population remains higher than projected.

The state estimates that it spends about $14,000 a year per inmate. At
that rate, 2,000 extra inmates would cost $56 million more than
expected over the next two years.

"That basically cancels the savings out. It could evaporate
overnight," said Eva DeLuna Castro, a budget analyst with the
nonprofit Center for Public Policy Priorities, which advocates for
low-income Texans. "This isn't the only time it's going to happen. All
the agencies, as we get closer and closer to the [legislative]
session, will have revised numbers."

Comptroller Carole Keeton Rylander has projected that lawmakers would
face a $5 billion shortfall when they return to Austin in January to
write the budget.

State leaders have said they do not believe a tax increase is
necessary, making cuts more likely.

A sustained spike in the inmate population would make it difficult to
cut spending on prisons. From 1990 to 2000, the state spent $1.7
billion on prison construction, and the number of inmates tripled to
151,000. When the economy peaked in 2000, the number of inmates began
to fall, and lawmakers said the era of building prisons was finished.

The state's Criminal Justice Policy Council, which provides data and
policy analysis to state officials, projected in June that the inmate
population would hover just under 145,000 for two years before
increasing to almost 147,000 in 2004.

The jump came ahead of schedule.

Statewide, total crime increased 1.3 percent from the first six months
of 2001 to the first six months of 2002, according to the Department
of Public Safety. The portion of parole applicants approved for
release was about 25 percent in the previous fiscal year; in October,
it was 19 percent.

State Rep. Pat Haggerty, R-El Paso, chairman of the House Corrections
Committee, said too many paroled convicts are returned to prison for
violating technical terms of their release, such as missing
appointments with parole officers.

"When technicals are being hammered, it leads to a rise in the
population," Mr. Haggerty said. "When we get into the new year, you'll
see some changes being made. Hopefully, you'll see the parole rate
rise."