SURGE IN INMATES SEEN ON HORIZON

Texas System May Hit Capacity Within Two Years, Study Says

At a time when legislators already have a full plate of woes to digest, the
Texas inmate population is growing again. New research predicts that within
two years the prison system may run out of room for inmates. That
projection by the Criminal Justice Policy Council, a state agency that
analyzes policy for the governor and the Legislature, could spell the end
to a decline in inmate population that began in 2000. Among the options
being discussed: building new prisons.

"Is there a need for the state to build more prisons? Do we need to go out
and contract beds again? Do we need to look at more privatization? Are
there creative ways for us to increase our own capacity? Those are all the
kinds of things that we will have to look at," said Gary Johnson, executive
director of the Texas Department of Criminal Justice. He said the
projections made public on Tuesday represent a significant change from
previous forecasts. Mr. Johnson said the department won't officially change
a budget request submitted in September - which is about equal to the
agency's current operating budget. But he expects the new projections to
prompt discussions between prison officials and legislators as they weigh
short-term and long-term options.

Throughout the 1990s, Texas experienced an inmate population explosion that
fueled the largest prison construction boom in the state's history. The
inmate population soared from 49,600 in 1991 to a record 151,100 in 2000,
according to state statistics. To help with the overflow, some inmates were
housed in county facilities.

The criminal justice department's operational capacity is 147,683 offenders
- - with a reported population of 146,778 as of December. The Criminal
Justice Policy Council's researchers concluded that by the end of fiscal
2004, the inmate population could exceed capacity by 2,366 offenders. By
the end of fiscal 2008, they projected that the population could exceed
operational capacity by 13,713 inmates - for a total of 161,396 - well
above the previous high-water mark.

Tony Fabelo, the Criminal Justice Policy Council's executive director,
attributed the projected population growth to "fewer releases, more [parole
and probation] revocations, and higher crime."

Prison releases in Texas declined 10 percent in fiscal 2002, while parole
revocations increased by 14 percent and probation revocations by 4 percent.
And rising crime, demonstrated by a 10 percent increase in the average
number of jail prisoners awaiting trials for felonies, heightened the
"front-end" demand for prison space.

Mr. Johnson said prison officials already are discussing ways to deal with
the anticipated population growth. He said prison officials also will
review the revocation process used for probationers and parolees, as well
as alternatives to incarceration.

"When you look at the numbers, we take in - between the state jail and
institutional division - more than 50,000 people a year," he said. "And
about 21,000 of those are probation revocations, and about 11,000 are
parole revocations."

Reducing the number of revocations, he said, translates into fewer inmates.
Housing more inmates isn't the only issue for the prison system. A larger
inmate population would place more demands on correctional officers, at a
time when the department is grappling with a shortage. Mr. Johnson said
that the shortage has been reduced, in part because of pay increases and
other benefits approved by the last Legislature. In September 2001, the
department had about 3,400 fewer correctional officers than the agency's
authorized strength. Mr. Johnson said the department is about 2,300
correctional officers below its authorized strength. Meredith Rountree, who
heads the American Civil Liberties Union of Texas' Prison and Jail
Accountability Project, said she's concerned with "any kind of increase in
the prison population" and worries that could lead to "cutbacks in things
we think are essential to keep Texas out of litigation" such as mental
health care. She said the department's staffing problems might intensify.

When confronted with staffing shortages, she said, "generally the prisons
will cut back on activities for prisoners and they will be on some kind of
quasi-lockdown status.

"They'll be confined to their cells for longer periods of time, and things
like that are strongly associated with greater levels of frustration and
bad behavior by prisoners," she said.

Prison officials said that they remain committed to sound correctional
practices. "There's no thought of going back to an antiquated system," said
Larry Todd, a prison spokesman.