AFGHANS ON EDGE OF CHAOS

As Opium Production And Banditry Soar, The Country Is At Risk Of Anarchy,
Some Warn, And Could Allow A Taliban Resurgence

WARDAK, Afghanistan - Two months after a gun attack, the bullet holes in the
Datsun sedan have been patched and it runs beautifully. But water engineer
Asil Kahn walks with a limp and he still has two bullets in his body, one of
them half an inch from his spine.

The vehicle's humanitarian logo made him a victim in the battle for
Afghanistan's future, where water engineers, mine-clearers and humanitarian
workers - people the country needs most - are prime targets for militants
trying to destabilize President Hamid Karzai's interim government.

The May attack on the Afghanistan Development Agency car in Wardak province,
south of Kabul on the road to Kandahar, injured Kahn but killed the driver.

"They weren't robbers or thieves," said Kahn, 46. "They just wanted to kill
us. They're people against the government. They thought that maybe there
would be some foreigners or some officials from aid organizations in the
car. That's why they shot us."

U.S. forces have their hands full trying to subdue attacks in Iraq. But with
the slow buildup of a national Afghan army, an inadequate U.S. and coalition
presence and poor progress on reconstruction projects, Afghanistan is
spiraling out of control and risks becoming a "narco-mafia" state, some
humanitarian agencies warn.

Already the signs are there - a boom in opium production, rampant banditry
and huge swaths of territory unsafe for Western aid workers. The central
government has almost no power over regional warlords who control roads and
extort money from truck drivers, choking commerce and trade.

If the country slips into anarchy, it risks becoming a haven for resurgent
Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters. And the point of U.S. military action here
could be lost - a major setback in the war against terrorism.

Money spent on the war may end up being wasted, and dragging the country
back from chaos could be even more costly. America spends about $900 million
a month on its forces stationed here, but little of the $3 billion
authorized for aid in the Freedom Support Act has been spent.

U.S. promises of a Marshall Plan for Afghanistan raised Afghan expectations,
but security and reconstruction woes are undermining support for the
coalition among ordinary Afghans. Their disappointment and disillusionment
plays into the hands of anti-government militants.

Humanitarian agencies, calling for a big boost in international funds for
security and reconstruction, contend that the commitment to Afghanistan is
relatively low. A CARE International paper in January stated that postwar
international aid spent in Bosnia-Herzegovina was $326 per capita, compared
with $42 promised for Afghans up to 2006. For every peacekeeping soldier
there were 48 Bosnians, compared with one for every 5,380 Afghans, the paper
said. Yet Bosnia poses no appreciable terrorist threat.

There are 8,500 U.S. military personnel leading the 11,500 anti-terrorist
coalition forces in Afghanistan. An additional 5,000 international troops
secure the capital city, Kabul. A key missing piece is an Afghan army, but
with only 4,000 troops trained so far, it will take many years to reach the
planned 70,000-strong force. It won't be ready in time to ensure free and
fair elections scheduled for June. Some of the 4,000 trained soldiers have
already defected because of poor salaries and low morale.

The security vacuum outside Kabul has emboldened Taliban fighters, who
constitute the bulk of anti-government militants, some who cross from
Pakistan, others based in the east and south. U.S. officials say the Taliban
controls part of the opium business, a rich source of funds to attract
fighters.

As security worsens, there are sharp differences between the aid community
and Western leaders on how to prevent a deepening slide.

Many in the international aid community in Kabul believe the coalition's
latest response to the security problem - small scale military teams
tackling modest reconstruction projects - will have little impact and will
put aid workers at more risk by blurring the line between them and soldiers.

About 40% of the $5.2 billion pledged by the international community last
year has been spent but with little progress on big reconstruction projects
like the Kabul-to-Kandahar road. Much of the money has been eaten up by
emergency relief - food, medicine, blankets and tents.

Haji Abdul Khaliq, 54, arrived in Kabul exhausted by 14 hours on the
shattering, rocky track of a highway from Kandahar. It was inconceivable to
him that $2 billion had been spent in his country since January last year.

"From what we can see, they didn't spend more than a dollar," he spluttered
angrily. "There are no paved roads, no reconstruction of government
buildings, no help for the people and no government salaries.

"I think at first people were very hopeful, [but] day by day they lose
hope," said Khaliq, a turbaned, white-bearded general from a Kandahar
military base who is fighting Taliban militants in the south.

The term Taliban can be a little confusing in a city like Kandahar, where
most people in power were once with the Taliban.

Typical of many Afghan moujahedeen fighters, Khaliq is loyal only to his
commander. Though he's fighting anti-government militants, he is
contemptuous of Americans and despises Karzai and his government.

Khaliq said Taliban forces in the region were growing bolder. A June 30
explosion at a Kandahar mosque that injured more than a dozen was apparently
aimed at the anti-Taliban mullah there. A day later another anti-Taliban
mullah was shot dead in Nakobak village, six miles south of Kandahar.

In the same week, said Khaliq, Taliban fighters from Pakistan set up a base
northeast of Kandahar in Zabul province. Afghan forces attacked, killing a
dozen Taliban fighters and capturing about five.

The Taliban rebels offer local people good salaries - more than $100 a month
- - to fight, while Khaliq grumbled that he and his men are not being paid at
all. Afghanistan's severe budgetary problems are leaving many civil servants
unpaid.

In Afghanistan, U.S. forces have not suffered the steady casualties borne by
the much larger force in Iraq. But anti-government militants in recent
months have killed aid workers, attacked mine-clearers and burned girls
schools. In June, a suicide bomb attack in Kabul killed four German soldiers
from the International Security Assistance Force, or ISAF.

The security problem delaying the Kabul-Kandahar road project is denying the
country the economic fillip of a six-hour trade route between the cities.
Taxis can do the road in 14 hours, but truck transport takes at least two
days.

Taxi drivers working the road daily tell hair-raising tales of armed attacks
by thieves and bandits. With something akin to nostalgia, they recall the
security of the Taliban era, when they could drive all night without fear.

U.S. forces are focused on eradicating remnants of the Taliban. But to many
Afghans, a more immediate problem is bandits, often associated with the
venal commanders and warlords who control the roads.

Sher Alimad, 38, a driver from the western city of Herat, said he was
attacked in mid-June by five gunmen at Gereshk, about 40 miles west of
Kandahar. He was beaten, tied up and thrown into his trunk, driven to a
deserted road and robbed of 12,000 Afghanis (about $250).

A surge in trade by small businessmen after the Taliban's fall is being
slowly strangled by extortion and banditry.

A group of truck drivers sat wearily in the dust at Dashte Deh Sabz on the
northern outskirts of Kabul, after their loads of gravel for the thriving
brick industry were seized by a local commander named Maulana. They said he
had taken over the gravel trade.

"He's collecting from everyone. No one else can bring it into the city
except for him," said driver Khalifa Yakub, 21, who said he was beaten by
checkpoint soldiers and jailed for three days when he tried to protest. His
dream of running his own small gravel transport business has died. He's
become an employee.

"These people, they're commanders, they're dealers, they're businessmen,
they're killers, they're everything," he said ruefully.

President Karzai has repeatedly called for the deployment of ISAF forces
outside Kabul, a request echoed by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan and
international aid agencies, but resisted by U.S. and European leaders. Last
month an open letter from 80 aid organizations called for a national ISAF
presence, warning that efforts to rebuild and hold elections were at risk.

Karzai has called for international donors to offer $20 billion over five
years to help the country rebuild. CARE International called for at least
$10 billion.

Playing down the security problem on a recent visit, Defense Secretary
Donald H. Rumsfeld said provincial reconstruction teams, or PRTs -
military-civilian teams of 50-100 people deployed to rebuild infrastructure
- - would play a key role in improving security. Four are working, independent
of ISAF, and eight are planned.

Lt. Gen. Norbert van Heyst, the German commander of ISAF forces in Kabul,
described the city as a "safe island" because of ISAF's presence, but
expressed concern that militant attacks in the south and east could spill
into the capital. However, he said, extending ISAF beyond Kabul was
unrealistic.

"For the entire country you would need 10,000 additional troops, and nobody
is willing to do that," he said, adding that PRTs were a more realistic
first step. "I'm convinced that this concept can improve security."

It's a view contested by many in the humanitarian sector. Barbara Stapleton
of ACBAR, the coordinating body for Afghan relief, said the military should
focus on improving poor security, not duplicate the role of humanitarian
agencies.

PRTs "have neither the mandate nor the resources to have a significant
impact on either reconstruction or security," she said, adding that the
teams eroded Afghan confidence in the neutrality of humanitarian agencies.
"In a highly complex security situation, they further muddy the waters."

Stapleton said some U.S. military anti-terrorist forces had conducted crude
searches in a village in southern Afghanistan, bursting into homes and
offending cultural sensibilities.

"Then they went in later with sweeteners and built wells. And the people
refused to use them. It's actually a crude way of dealing with a highly
sophisticated and very intelligent people."