GOOD NEWS WON'T STICK TO PERU'S PRESIDENT

WASHINGTON -- Ronald Reagan is generally recognized as the original
"Teflon president." No matter what went wrong during his two-term
presidency in the '80s, whether outside his control or not, he
remained popular -- no allegation or bad news seemed to stick to him,
as if he were treated with a non-stick coating.

In Latin America, where growing disaffection toward democracy is
further eroding public confidence in politicians, a new kind of Teflon
presidency has emerged. Today, it is best personified by President
Alejandro Toledo of Peru, but with a somewhat cruel twist: For Toledo,
not even the best of news sticks.

Last year, Peru led Latin America in economic growth and the trend
seems to be continuing in 2003. Yet Toledo's popularity spirals
downward, defying conventional political wisdom that a president's
popularity rises with the economy.

Since taking office, Toledo has been fully supportive of a Truth and
Reconciliation Commission created to address Peru's recent history of
violence, abuse and oppression. He has been the only South American
president to play host to President Bush and has helped ensure the
expansion of U.S. trade benefits for Peruvian exports. Still his
approval ratings have remained far below pre-election levels.

Two months ago, Toledo cut his salary 30 percent. That same month,
Toledo ventured to California as the first sitting Latin American
leader to address a Stanford University commencement. Also that month,
his approval plunged to a paltry 11 percent, the lowest of his
two-year-old presidency.

As of late, his popularity has ticked up a bit, and observers here
believe talk of a recall has subsided. Nevertheless, his is an
unfortunate state of affairs for what was supposed to have been a
remarkable Cinderella story of democracy in the region.

Toledo's case, in many respects, may be the latest example of how
democratic progress and economic growth, two pillars of the Bush
administration's policy for Latin America, may be good and necessary
but insufficient to move a nation forward. Even the best intentions
and policies in Washington most likely won't stick when a leader is
weak, unpopular or, like Toledo, has a penchant for gumming up the
works.

So, for instance, his administration's cavalier treatment of
environmental concerns has delayed what should have been a sure thing
for his government and the U.S. administration and undercut what
political victory he could have won. The ambitious Camisea natural gas
project, if completed, would transform Peru from importer to exporter
of this important resource but Toledo's gross mishandling, according
to a U.S. congressional source, has made the Bush administration balk
at its full support.

Toledo too has lost opportunities for tangible success in Peru's drug
war. When Washington suspended support in 2001 for the so-called
"shoot down" aircraft interdiction policy, after Peruvian pilots
accidentally killed a missionary and her infant child, Peru and
Colombia, the two participants in the program, were required to do a
full review and adopt changes to assure that such a tragedy would not
happen again.

The Bush administration restarted the program in Colombia last week,
while Peru, some here say, is years away for making the necessary reforms.

On the ground, Toledo is sending mixed signals on drugs and military
funding. Despite ambitious crop eradication goals, Toledo recently
promised the cocaleros that he won't force them to eradicate and that
he would allow more time for them to switch to alternative legal
crops. He has has pledged to repress any resurgence of terrorist
activities by the Maoist Shining Path guerrillas, even as he is
insisting that military spending be cut.

So, even if in a few weeks the Bush administration issues a positive
evaluation of Peru's efforts against illegal drugs, it may do little
to counter Toledo's own actions. Indeed, these mixed signals, lack of
direction and mismanagement are part of the between-the-lines
explanation of why seemingly good things slide right off Toledo's presidency.

Reconsider then what should have roused popular support this summer.
Toledo's Stanford trip should have been an honor but became instead a
beacon for criticism for his use of the presidential plane to get
there. Toledo's pay cut was the second of three cuts that were
intended to show solidarity with poor Peruvians but instead came off
as weak gestures of a fickle president.

In retrospect, Peru has much to be proud since the end of Alberto
Fujimori's autocratic regime. And as the results of the Truth
Commission's two-year investigation released yesterday are digested,
Peru and the United States ought to see Toledo's successes and
failures in the light of democratic rule. But the irony remains, that
today Toledo is less popular than the predecessors whose two decades
of corrupt and oppressive rule can hardly be called democratic.