SCARY CRIME STATS BAD BASIS FOR PUBLIC POLICY

VICTORIA - We treat each batch of crime statistics like some campfire
ghost story, eagerly looking for new reasons to be frightened by a
dangerous world.

So when Statistics Canada reported a jump in property crime in B.C.
this week it was big news and a hot discussion topic. The main theme
was that our corner of the world is becoming less safe, and the most
commonly offered solutions were more police and longer sentences.

Except that the scary story was just about as made-up as those
campfire tales about one-handed killers and midnight callers.

Violent crime in B.C. dropped again this year, as it has for at least
the past seven years. The rate of violent crime -- and your chances of
becoming a victim -- has fallen by 15 per cent since 1996.

You're safer, not at greater risk.

Property crime did jump by almost six per cent last year. That's
worrying. But it's no cause for panic, any more than the six-per-cent
drop in 2000 was a cause for wild celebration.

There are just too many variables for single-year statistics to have
much meaning. (For example, Vancouver police started letting people
report crimes over the Internet last year, a positive change that
likely increased the number of reported offences.)

Again, the long-term trend is positive. The property crime rate has
fallen by about 10 per cent since 1996. Some of that improvement is
likely because people no longer report minor offences, but the numbers
show that things are not all that bad.

There's nothing wrong with ghost stories. Perhaps worrying about
imaginary dangers offers us a distraction from the more complex, real
ones out there.

But they're a dangerous basis for public policy, as revealed by our
costly, failed efforts to deal with marijuana use.

Statistics Canada's latest survey on drug use found that 16 per cent
of British Columbians 15 and over had used marijuana in 2002 -- about
525,000 people.

Across Canada, more than one-third of people from 15 to 24 have used
marijuana in the last year. That likely rises to about 45 per cent in
B.C., based on StatCan's numbers.

It's impractical for any government to think that it can enforce laws
that make criminals of so many citizens.

The B.C. government disagrees and opposes the federal Liberals' move
to decriminalize pot possession. Growing operations, trafficking and
smuggling are enriching organized crime, it argues, and wants tougher
penalties.

Facts about the extent of the problem are scarce. There's lots of talk
about the need for tougher drug enforcement to stop a flood of B.C.
marijuana into the U.S.

But a recent RCMP report noted U.S. Customs seized 27 times more
marijuana along the Mexican border than it did on the Canadian side,
an indication that B.C.'s export role may be overblown.

And while there's also lots of talk about violence, an RCMP study of
12,000 B.C. grow-op reports revealed guns were found at six per cent;
overall, about 24 per cent of homes in the province have firearms.

An illegal, profitable activity is certain to attract some serious
criminals.

But attempts to solve a drug problem by attacking sources of supply
have consistently failed.

The Prohibition experiment in the '20s showed that if enough people
want a drink, or any other product, suppliers will meet the demand.

Tougher laws won't change that reality.

The U.S. has also tried extreme penalties in drug cases. But the RCMP
report noted that most American marijuana is still grown domestically
and it's widely available. (In any case, jailing people for years for
providing a product used by half a million British Columbians would
bring justice into disrepute.)

There's no simple solution. But if the objective is to deal with
organized crime, then perhaps resources should be shifted from dealing
with the thousands of small growing operations to focused enforcement.
Or perhaps cultivation of a few plants should be legalized, a change
that would take the profits -- and the gangs -- out of the business.

There's nothing wrong with a good ghost story. But for our sense of
safety, and our response to crime, they're better based on fact.