CRIME RATE AND BABY BOOMERS

The crime rate in Canada rose last year for the first time in more
than a decade.

Crime as a whole was up 5.5 per cent across the country, and slightly
more -- six per cent -- if drug-related offences are excluded. The
latter have declined somewhat, perhaps because of the reluctance of
law enforcement authorities in some provinces to lay charges for
possessing small amounts of marijuana.

Violent crime rates were unchanged, but property offences such as
break-ins and vehicle thefts rose four per cent and counterfeiting
incidents increased a staggering 72 per cent.

B.C. bucked the national trend in drug offences -- marijuana
convictions were up six per cent -- but otherwise the picture here
resembles the rest of the country.

The question of course is what happened to cause this unwelcome
increase in criminal offences, after a long period of stability in the
1990s. One possible explanation may lie in the age structure of
Canada's population.

Following the original baby boom, which peaked in the 1950s, an "echo
boom" occurred in the '70s and early '80s. The children who formed the
peak of this second boom turned 20 around 2000. Since a significant
percentage of crimes are committed by people in the 18- to 30-year-old
age group, we may be seeing the finger prints of second-generation
baby boomers.

If there is a demographic basis for the increase in crime figures, it
could mean we are in for several more years of the same. Next year's
report should indicate if there is indeed an upward trend, or if this
year was simply abnormal.