ADD DOPE TO THE LIST OF OUR KEY ECONOMIC FACTORS

The deep thinkers at the B.C. Business Council have come up with 10 key
trends that will shape the province through 2010.

Some of them are easy picks, such as external world forces that everyone is
grappling with, like China. Some of them are internal, made-in-B.C. issues,
such as labour market changes.

Although they missed a few, the trends are worth a run-through, as factors
to keep in mind when watching what becomes of B.C. over the next few years.

- - Native treaties have stalled out, but native economic ventures are taking
shape that could be a sign of good things to come. Corporate-aboriginal
business ventures are becoming more common and they are seen as a good
route out of poverty-stricken reserves.

- - The graph of B.C. merchandise exports to five leading countries shows
four stable lines and one going almost straight up. That's China. B.C.'s
international trade realigned back to the U.S. in the 1990s, but now all
the growth is with China; 400 per cent since 1993. That country's ferocious
appetite and growth (read China Inc.) is a dominant factor in the world
right now, and B.C. is one of the closer bystanders to that phenomenon.

- - Labour shortages, immigration and population growth. It's going to be a
good time to have a skilled trade, demographically speaking. And if serious
labour shortages develop, increased immigration is the only way to solve
them, as the birth rate has stayed low for years. Interprovincial migration
is also expected to play a role. B.C. netted 7,000 more people from other
provinces last year and that net inflow is expected to double in the years
ahead.

- - Energy is going to take a higher profile. The oil and gas boom will
continue, pouring billions into the treasury. Natural gas royalties and
associated levies are now the biggest source of direct resource revenue. On
the power-supply side, the generating shortfall is now a fact of life. B.C.
is a net importer of electricity, with 12 per cent of the power coming from
outside the borders.

Major new sources of energy are required to meet future domestic demand, as
little new generating capacity has been added for decades. It can come from
another big dam, small-scale hydro, gas or wind, but it has to come from
somewhere, and soon.

- - Productivity increases. B.C. has lagged for more than a decade behind
other provinces in productivity growth, says the business council. But with
investment up and the forest industry restructured, productivity is on the
upswing.

A multi-year construction boom is also counted on by the business council
to be a driver for the next several years, and another high-tech boom could
be in the offing.

B.C.'s technology sector has been in recovery since the dot-com collapse of
2000, and the different clusters that comprise that industry are posting
good growth.

- - The last key trend they're watching for is the concept of B.C. and
Alberta co-operation to coalesce into something that would give the West
some real clout in Canada. Both provinces are growing, they produce 96 per
cent of Canada's natural gas, and both have committed to co-operation
agreements in the past few years. It started with things like weigh scales,
but it could turn into something more important in the next few years.

There are a few issues not on their list, but still worth watching. Dope,
for instance. The Marc Emery extradition case could be the flashpoint that
finally brings fundamental differences between B.C. and the U.S. to a head.

The province's relaxed attitudes about marijuana -- a multi-billion-dollar
contributor to the underground economy -- is a remarkable contrast to the
U.S. war on drugs. Years of simmering resentment south of the border seem
to be coming to a head now over Emery's seed-export business.

Whatever happens to the self-promoting Marijuana party head, the difference
in official postures has big potential, mostly for trouble.

Passports are also a factor. A U.S. requirement for everyone entering the
country from Canada to eventually have passports could stop the tourism
industry in its tracks.

A majority of Americans don't carry passports, but they would be required
to get one if they wanted to visit Canada and return. That takes about $100
and a couple of weeks waiting for forms to be processed, which is enough to
kill more than a few vacation plans.

And finally, watch to see if the political culture really is changing in
B.C. It was facetiously suggested here last week that "the wacky world of
B.C. politics" is dead.

A new tone in the capital of boring but responsible debate could usher in
all manner of changes in the years ahead.