U.S. MURDER RATE LOWEST IN 40 YEARS

Violent Crime Statistics Also Down; Experts Cite Shifting Local Conditions

WASHINGTON - The nation's murder rate declined last year for the
first time in four years, dropping to the lowest level in 40 years.
Experts said local rather than national trends were mostly responsible.

The rates for all seven major crimes were down, and the overall
violent crime rate reached a 30-year low, according to the FBI's
annual compilation of crimes reported to police.

There were 391 fewer murders nationwide in 2004 than the year before.
The total of 16,137 worked out to 5.5 murders for every 100,000
people. That's a decline of 3.3 percent from 2003 and the lowest
murder rate since 1965, when it was 5.1 per 100,000.

"The declines are relatively small compared to larger, steady drops
in the 1990s, and the results are by no means the same across the
country," said professor Alfred Blumstein of Carnegie Mellon
University in Pittsburgh.

"We're not seeing important national trends like the shrinking of
crack markets in the 1990s. These are responses to local situations,
changes in local drug markets and shifts in gangs."

Of 19 large cities with more than 100 murders apiece in 2003, 13 had
declines in 2004 and six recorded increases, he said.

"The best news is that there's no national increase despite reasons,
like economic conditions, why it could rise," said professor Alan Fox
of Northeastern University in Boston. Other dangers he cited were
growing gang violence in some cities, local law enforcement budget
cuts and a shift of federal law enforcement aid from local police
hiring to homeland security.

The four major violent crimes - murder, rape, robbery and aggravated
assault - declined, from 1.38 million in 2003 to 1.37 million in
2004. That produced a 2.2 percent drop in the violent crime rate to
465.5 crimes per 100,000 people - the lowest since 1974, when it was
461.1 per 100,000.

The South, with 36 percent of the nation's population but 43 percent
of its murders, had larger declines in murders than any other region.
The Southern regional murder rate declined 5 percent, to 6.6 per 100,000.