CONSENSUS ON REFORMS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED

Proposed Crime Policies Will Also Invite Constitutional Challenges

Stephen Harper expects to find some parliamentary allies in the
coming months to push through his first justice initiative of
toughening the country's crime laws.

But the prime minister-designate could then find his easiest days are
behind him on the law-and-order front.

The Conservatives' ambitious justice agenda includes almost 50
measures, many of which are widely believed to be too harsh to sell
to a divided Parliament or an affront to the Charter of Rights.

With no natural partners in Parliament, there are predictions that
some of Mr. Harper's more controversial proposals will be sidelined
or abandoned.

"I don't think they're going to get away with it," said Janine
Brodie, a political scientist at the University of Alberta.

She expects Mr. Harper will find the support he needs for at least a
watered-down version of his anti-crime measures, particularly his
proposals to impose higher minimum mandatory jail terms for certain
gun-related crimes, and increase police presence at the borders.

Mr. Harper says that a bill "to toughen up our criminal justice
system" will be one of his key priorities after he becomes prime
minister Feb. 6.

The NDP and Liberals also called for increased mandatory jail terms
and border guards during the campaign, so it is expected that there
will be little opposition to Conservative legislation, although it
could be a diluted version of the party's plan to raise minimum
sentences to 10 years for some crimes.

"I think that's a fairly safe one," said Ms. Brodie. "No one is going
to bring down a government on what appears to be a basis of being
soft on criminals."

She stressed that studies show mandatory minimum sentences don't
work, but that the evidence won't stand in the way of politicians
imposing them because it makes them look like they are doing
something about serious gun violence.

Mr. Harper has not set out a timetable for any other of his party's
expansive justice measures, which propose some of the toughest plans
for punishing criminals that Canada has seen in modern times.

Some experts say there is a raft of policies that would invite
Charter of Rights challenges on the grounds of cruel and unusual
punishment if they ever became law.

They include repealing the "faint hope" clause that allows prisoners
serving life sentences to apply for early parole after 15 years,
imposing consecutive instead of concurrent sentences for people
convicted of multiple offences, declaring someone a dangerous
offender after committing a third violent or sexual offence, and
requiring violent or serious repeat offenders who are 14 or older be
tried in adult court instead of youth court.

To some extent, the Conservatives' proposals on law and order will
depend on the priorities of the new justice minister.

Contenders include: Peter MacKay, a former Crown prosecutor who was
the Tory justice critic before the party merged with the Canadian
Alliance; former Ontario attorney general Jim Flaherty; Diane
Ablonczy, a Calgarian and original member of the old Reform party;
and Vic Toews, former Manitoba attorney general and federal
Conservative justice critic in the last Parliament.

The appointment of Mr. Toews as the country's top lawmaker could be
problematic, however, because he has been convicted of violating the
Manitoba Elections Act by overspending during the 1999 campaign in
which he lost his seat.

Mr. MacKay and Ms. Ablonczy are widely considered to be more
moderate, safer choices than Mr. Flaherty or Mr. Toews, who are
stronger advocates of tough justice policies.

Mr. Harper has also promised to re-open the debate over the
legalization of same-sex marriage within his current mandate. Another
pledge to eliminate the defence of artistic merit for possession of
child pornography could also pose problems under the freedom of
expression provisions of the Charter.

"There will definitely be a lot of constitutional litigation
initiated," predicted Lorraine Weinrib, a law professor at the
University of Toronto.