NASHVILLE'S HOMICIDE SURGE HIGHEST IN U.S.

Guns, Drugs, Passion Play Big Part But Don't Answer Big Question: Why?

Drug deals gone sour, love triangles that erupted in violence and,
sometimes, the slayings of innocent people just minding their own
business made 2005 one of the deadliest years on record in Nashville.

The 100 homicides in Davidson County last year was up 71% from 2004,
when Metro-area killings plunged to a 37-year low. Police and city
officials are at loss to explain the cause of the spike, and experts
say it could merely be a statistical anomaly that defies a hard and
fast answer.

"If you had all the information in the world, you may be left with no
explanation at all," said Robert Weisberg, a Stanford University Law
School professor and director of Stanford's Criminal Justice Center.
"It really could be random."

Last year's surge was the sharpest one-year increase in homicides
since Nashville and Davidson County became a consolidated Metro
government in 1963. It was also the largest year-over-year increase
of any of the nation's 35 largest cities.

When he took over as head of the Metro police department in January
2004, Chief Ronal Serpas vowed to make Nashville the safest big city
in America. In a recent interview, he maintained that despite the
year's grim tally, Music City remains a safe place for the vast
majority of people who aren't involved in criminal activity.

But the fact that people involved in criminal activity most often
fall victim to street violence doesn't explain Nashville's 2005
trend, the chief acknowledged.

"Exactly why the assailants resorted to deadly force is not clear,
nor why a drastic shift in 2005 versus 2004," Serpas said. "Although
one can presume, from past history and experience, that many of these
victims and perpetrators were engaged in illegal activity at the time
of the event, both in 2004 and 2005."

When all is said and done, the tally could go higher.

The death of a woman whose body was set afire behind a building in
west Nashville remains under investigation.

Most Likely To Die

The victims of last year's killings included people from a variety of
ethnic groups, ages, income levels and walks of life.

A Tennessean analysis of the 100 victims and the circumstances
surrounding their deaths found that many shared common traits:

At least 40 of the victims knew their killers.

At least 40 cases involved drug activity or disputes with romantic
partners or other domestic acquaintances.

More than two-thirds of the victims were shot to death.

More than half of the victims -- 55 -- were black, although
African-Americans make up 28% of Nashville's population.

The disproportionate representation of African-Americans among last
year's homicide victims is particularly troublesome to groups such as
the 100 Black Men of Middle Tennessee, which has worked to stem the
trend through their "007" program.

In 1991, the group selected 22 second-grade boys for intensive
mentoring and tutoring in hopes of ensuring their success. The
program's name, 007, refers to 2007, the year the boys would graduate
from college.

When the class graduated from high school in 2003, six of the boys
enrolled in college.

Among them was Desmond Romel Conway. A sophomore at Tennessee State
University, Conway, 19, appeared poised to become one of the
program's success stories when he was shot in the face during a drug
dispute in January 2005, becoming Nashville's sixth homicide of the year.

"Everybody was stunned and saddened by that," said Ronald Roberts,
chairman of The 100 Black Men of Middle Tennessee. "You never want to
hear anything like that. We do everything we can to reverse that trend."

Drug-Related Killings

At least 16 slayings involved people engaged in the risky practices
of buying or selling drugs, or who were killed in homes or places
where drug activity was common.

Marijuana was being sold from an Antioch apartment where Abdulahi
Musse was shot to death during an apparent robbery in October, police
said. Two teenagers and an adult, armed with guns, stormed into
Musse's apartment and robbed him of money and drugs, police said.
Musse appears to have been shot when he resisted.

One of the year's most brutal killings was discovered Nov. 30, when
emergency workers responded to a fire at a duplex in the 2300 block
of 24th Avenue North. Inside, police found four men shot to death.
All had extensive criminal records. One of the bodies had been badly
burned in the blaze, which police suspect was set to cover up the
killings. Also found inside the house was a small bag of cocaine, a
set of weighing scales and plastic bags like those used to package
drugs, police said.Witnesses told police that large amounts of
cocaine were routinely sold from the location.

After the slayings, Tabitha Odom, girlfriend of one of the victims,
said her boyfriend, Ryan Russell, knew that his lifestyle was
dangerous and told loved ones of his surprise to have survived past
his 25th birthday.

"Ryan did what it took to take care of his family, even if it meant
going outside in the freezing cold," Odom said at the time. "He did
what it took to make sure his children had diapers."

Domestic Violence

Slayings involving a friend or family member also were common in 2005.

One widely publicized domestic dispute in April ended with the death
of Jeffrey Alan Freeman, 44. Freeman followed the sound of snoring to
a closet in a spare bedroom of the couple's home, where he discovered
his wife's lover asleep, the woman later testified. The confrontation
escalated and Freeman was beaten and choked to death in a bathroom.
Freeman's wife and her lover have been charged.

Freeman's death was among at least 24 killings that occurred during
domestic disputes involving romantic partners or acquaintances last
year. Explosive and unpredictable, domestic cases often are
impossible for police to prevent.

In October, Charles "Bubba" Holbert, a Hermitage motel worker, was
shot and killed after he tried to intervene in a dispute between two
other men over a NASCAR race. His childhood friend, Philip "RK"
Farris, then committed a carjacking, before forcing his way into a
home where he held a family hostage, police said. Farris has been
charged in Holbert's killing.

"My family is truly destroyed," said Holbert's sister, Cissy Frazier.
"I know (Farris) is suffering. He took a very good man's life and a
friend's life, and he destroyed his life. There is a part of me that
feels sorry for him. Then there is a part of me that hopes he spends
the rest of his life in prison."

Random Violence

At least one in five of the people killed in Nashville-area homicides
last year appear to have been slain by strangers.

Among them was Alfonso Garcia-Quijas, 21, who was shot and killed by
strangers on March 25 during an apparent robbery. Moments before the
shooting, Garcia-Quijas had gone into a convenience store to change
some large bills. Police suspect he was a target after someone saw
him with the money.

Random violence also claimed the life of Christopher Davis, 28, a
shoe store security guard who was among several victims of an armed
teenager who went on a shooting spree June 19. The teen suspect
entered the store on North Gallatin Pike and tried to steal a pair of
shoes. Davis was shot and killed when he tried to intervene.

In November, Denise Brown, 15, was sitting in a friend's bedroom at
the James A. Cayce homes public housing complex with a group of girls
when a man fired a shot through the bedroom window. Brown was fatally wounded.

Spike A Mystery

It's possible that no amount of analysis will ever fully explain why
Nashville's killings went from one of the lowest years on record, to
one of the highest.In fact, the 2005 figures are filled with unknowns.

In more than 40 cases, it's impossible to determine from information
made public whether the victims knew their killers. At least 36 of
the killings remain unsolved.

Weisberg, the Stanford University crime expert, warns against reading
too much into Nashville's one-year hike. Indeed, in the 10 years
before 2005, the average number of homicides in Nashville was 81.

"Clearly the anomaly is what just happened," he said. "Everything
before that is roughly consistent with the rest of the U.S." Keeping
an eye on homicide numbers for the next few years should serve as a
better barometer of where Nashville's public safety is headed, he said.

Meanwhile, Mayor Bill Purcell is anxious to ensure the upward trend
doesn't continue. "It is all of our work to make it clear that this
kind of violence is both legally and socially unacceptable," Purcell said.