POPULIST CANDIDATE SEEN AS PERUVIAN CHVEZ

LIMA, Peru -- If Ollanta Humala, a retired army officer with no
governing experience, wins Sunday's presidential election, he may
become the South American leader who most worries Washington.

"He falls in the same league" as Latin America's two left-leaning
leaders: Venezuela's Hugo Chvez and Bolivia's Evo Morales, says
Dennis Jett, U.S. ambassador to Peru from 1996 to 1999. "He is just
as wacky as Chvez and Morales, and perhaps more unpredictable,
because, basically, his only experience is an attempted coup d'etat
and as a human rights abuser."

Until a few months ago, Humala, 43, was known mainly for leading a
failed military uprising against former president Alberto Fujimori in
2000 and allegations that as commander of a jungle counterinsurgency
base, he ordered the torture and killing of suspected leftist
guerrilla sympathizers in 1992. Humala denies the abuse charges.

While many Peruvians once considered him too controversial to be
elected, Humala is in a tight race against Lourdes Flores, 46, a
conservative, pro-business former congresswoman. A poll released
Thursday by the CPI polling company showed Lourdes with 28% support
compared with 26% for Humala. Former president Alan Garcia, 56,
trailed with 25%. The survey had a margin of error of +/-2.1
percentage points. If none of the 20 candidates gets more than 50% of
the vote, a runoff will be held.

"Humala looks more unstoppable by the minute, whether in the first or
second round," says Alvaro Vargas Llosa, a Latin America expert at
the Independent Institute, a think tank in Oakland. "In fact, the
polls are probably underestimating his overall support because of the
technical difficulties of measuring the rural vote."

Humala is reaching out to Peru's impoverished majority with proposals
that include renegotiating contracts and increasing taxes for
foreign-owned oil and mining companies -- similar to what Chvez and
Morales are doing in their countries. Peru is the world's
third-largest copper producer and last year overtook Russia to become
the fifth-largest gold miner.

The economy grew by more than 4% a year from 2002 to 2005, but more
than 50% of the population lives below the poverty line.

Humala wants to alter the free-trade agreement Peru signed with the
United States in December. He also vows to end U.S.-sponsored
coca-eradication programs, much as Morales has begun to do in
Bolivia. Peru is the world's second-biggest coca-leaf provider.

What is Humala's appeal? Peru has a tradition of electing leaders who
are not government or political insiders. Renowned novelist Mario
Vargas Llosa lost presidential elections in 1990 to Fujimori, a son
of Japanese immigrants and a little-known dean of an agricultural
university in Lima. In 2001, Alejandro Toledo, a former shoeshine boy
who became a World Bank consultant, was elected with no government experience.

Humala's friendship with Chvez, who has endorsed his candidacy, has
helped his image as an anti-establishment figure. Chvez has called
Humala -- who grew up in a middle-class Lima area -- the "voice of
Peru's downtrodden."

At a rally Wednesday night in Lima, photocopy shop worker Edgardo
Oliveres admitted he was "not really sure about who Humala is, or
what he will do." Even so, Oliveres said he is sure Humala is the
best option. "At least with Humala, as we don't know him, there is a
chance he will surprise us."