ONCE WE STOP TREATING DRUG USE AS A CRIME

Many states and nations have decriminalized marijuana and -- guess
what? -- the sky didn't fall.

Recently, Mexican President Vicente Fox vetoed a bill passed by the
Mexican Congress that would have removed criminal penalties for
people caught with small amounts of marijuana or other drugs. This
came after the Bush administration vigorously complained, predicting
it would encourage Americans to pour southward as "drug tourists."
But that option is now off the table for the moment. So Americans who
want to get high without fear of going to jail will have to go some
other place where cannabis can be consumed with impunity. Like Nebraska.

As it happens, no fewer than 11 states on this side of the border
have made the decision not to bother filling their prisons with
recreational potheads. Among them are not only states like California
and Oregon, which you might expect, but states like North Carolina
and Mississippi, which you might not. About 100 million Americans
live in places where pot has been decriminalized.

Maybe there are planeloads of college kids who travel to Maine or
Minnesota to spend each spring break hitting a bong, but if so, it's
a well-kept secret. In fact, the most noticeable thing about states
that have decriminalized marijuana is that they're not -- noticeable, that is.

Looking at these places, says University of Maryland economist Peter
Reuter, "You can't tell the difference from how many people use
marijuana." A 1999 report commissioned by the National Academy of
Sciences found "there is little evidence that decriminalization of
marijuana use necessarily leads to a substantial increase in marijuana use."

Not everyone is in complete agreement. Rosalie Pacula, codirector of
the Drug Policy Research Center at the RAND Corp., a California think
tank, says her research indicates decriminalization does tend to lead
to higher use. But by her measures, the effect is small.

Laws are only a modest factor in the decision to use drugs or not --
just as they are only a modest factor in the decision to smoke
cigarettes or not. Most people don't even know if they live in a
decriminalized state.

The evidence from abroad is not terribly scary either. The
Netherlands has gone beyond decriminalizing pot: For years, the
government has allowed the sale of small amounts of pot through
special cafes known as "coffee shops." Yet easy accessibility hasn't
made the drug any more tempting to the average person. Dutch adults
and teenagers both are less likely to use cannabis than Americans.

So it's hard to see why the United States should mind if Mexico
decides to go easy on potheads. A good deal of evidence indicates
that the law wouldn't make much difference in the behavior of either
Mexicans or Americans.

There are some clear advantages, though. By freeing cops from
focusing on recreational marijuana users, governments can reallocate
more resources to serious crime. One study found that since it began
treating pot possession like jaywalking in 1976, California has saved
at least $1 billion.

Of course, the Mexican measure would have decriminalized possession
of other drugs, too, including heroin, cocaine and amphetamines --
something no American state has done. Wouldn't anything so drastic
produce an explosion of hard drug use?

Actually, no. Italy, Spain and Portugal have decriminalized personal
use of all drugs, not just cannabis. But liberal laws don't
necessarily lead to liberal behavior. Spain has one of the highest
cocaine use rates in Europe -- but lower than the rate in Britain,
which has a much stricter approach.

Italy, by contrast, is about average for the continent, but Portugal
is well below average. On heroin, all three are on the high side,
though not dramatically so.

That fact, however, may not reveal anything about the effects of drug
policies. It's easy to assume that when you change the law, you
change behavior with respect to drugs. But the process may actually
go in the opposite direction. Spaniards may not tend to use more
cocaine because they have a permissive law; they may have a
permissive law because Spaniards tend to use more cocaine.

States and nations don't seem to lose anything when they stop
treating drug use as a crime. But there are gains to be had: more
police time to combat violent criminals, less need to build prisons,
and fewer young lives scarred by arrest and imprisonment for behavior
that does no harm.

Some people are happy with Mexico exactly as it is. But it just might
benefit from becoming more like Nebraska.