PRISON DOES BRING DOWN THE CRIME RATE

Since the U.S. Instituted Mandatory Sentences, Crime Has Dropped

Over the past 20 years, the incarceration rate in Canada has remained
stable while, south of the border, it has exploded. The new
Conservative government, using the U.S. as a model, is now vowing to
lock up more criminals -- with tools such as mandatory sentences. Sun
reporter Chad Skelton tackles the question of whether putting more
criminals behind bars really reduces crime.

Does prison work? With the introduction of several tough sentencing
measures earlier this month, the Conservative government has reopened
a fierce debate about whether putting more people in jail, and for
longer periods of time, has any meaningful impact on crime.

Justice Minister Vic Toews says he's confident the proposals -- which
would eliminate house arrest for several offences and impose minimum
prison terms for many gun crimes -- will help bring down the crime
rate.

But many critics, including defence lawyers and criminologists, say
longer prison sentences have little impact on crime, with many
pointing to the situation in the U.S. as a cautionary tale.

Kim Pate, executive director of the Elizabeth Fry Society, echoed the
views of many when she argued earlier this month that, if tougher
prison sentences reduced crime, "presumably ... the U.S. [would be]
the safest place in the world."

Over the past 20 years, the incarceration rate in the U.S. has more
than tripled, caused in large part by the introduction of mandatory
sentences.

During that same period, in contrast, Canada's incarceration rate has
stayed about the same.

There are now an estimated two million people behind bars in the U.S.
- -- on a per-capita basis, six times as many people in prison as there
are in Canada.

And did that explosion in the prison population work?

Did it bring down the crime rate?

The short answer is yes.

During the 1990s, the U.S. saw one of the most dramatic drops in crime
the world has ever seen.

The burglary rate fell by half, robberies went down by two-thirds and
the chance of having a car stolen dropped to one quarter what it was
in the late 1980s.

Canada saw a drop in crime during that period, too, but it was far
less dramatic.

"We can say all we want that we've got concerns about the way the U.S.
locks up too many people," said Darryl Plecas, a professor of
criminology at the University College of the Fraser Valley. "But that
doesn't change the reality that putting people in prison does change
the crime rate."

Historically, one of the biggest challenges in assessing the impact of
prison on crime is that the two are so inter-related -- a surge in
crime will naturally lead to more people being sent to prison.

In the mid-1990s, Steven Levitt, a prominent economist at the
University of Chicago, found a way to crack the puzzle.

With prison populations on the rise across the U.S., human rights
groups had filed lawsuits against several states arguing that prison
overcrowding violates offenders' rights -- in some cases leading
judges to order those states to reduce the number of people they sent
to jail.

Levitt found those states that were forced to send fewer people to
prison had more crime.

Crunching the numbers, he found that, on average, having one more
criminal behind bars resulted in 15 fewer serious crimes per year.

Based on those results, Levitt argued, the huge increase in the U.S.
prison population in the 1990s was responsible for a 12-per-cent
reduction in violent crime and an eight-per-cent drop in property
crime -- about one-third of the total decline.

In related studies, Levitt argued the rest of the drop was due to the
hiring of more police officers, the waning of the crack epidemic and
- -- most controversially -- the legalization of abortion 20 years
earlier, which led to fewer unwanted children.

CRIME RATES FELL FASTER IN U.S. THAN CANADA IN THE 1990S

According to the International Crime Victim Survey, which polls people
around the world on their experience with crime, the incidence of
several serious crimes has dropped far more quickly in the U.S. than
Canada. Some crimes even went up in Canada during that period.

Percentage of those surveyed who said they were victims of the
following crime in the past year:

Canada U.S.

Crime 1989 2000 1989 2000

Burglary 3.0% 2.3% 3.8% 1.8%

Robbery 1.1% 0.9% 1.9% 0.6%

Assault/Threats 3.9% 5.3% 5.4% 3.4%

Auto theft 0.8% 1.4% 2.1% 0.5%