HOW SAFE DO YOU FEEL?

While property crime in Springfield is higher than you might think,
violence like last weekend's killings is too rare to disrupt most
people's small-town feel of security.

How safe is Springfield?

Safe enough that a pair of senior citizens feel comfortable walking
the trails at Sequiota Park in the dark, said Ishver Patel, a native
of India who moved to Springfield three years ago.

"We come here every day. ... We don't feel any fear," said Patel, 72,
while his wife, Lalita, helped their 1-year-old grandson, Mahir,
trundle along a paved path at the southeast Springfield park Tuesday.

Violence such as the homicides last weekend is noteworthy in part
because it is rare, said Chad Stearman, who recently moved to
Springfield from Atlanta to teach chemistry at Missouri State University

"It seems more or less a fluke -- it's abnormal," he said of the
homicides, the fourth and fifth in the city this year. "We wouldn't
have taken jobs in Springfield if it hadn't been for the low crime rate."

But the city's crime rate is higher than some may think, according to
data collected by the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting program.

Springfield's property crime rate -- buoyed by more than 10,000 cases
last year of thefts such as shoplifting and car break-ins -- is about
twice the national average, although residents are less likely to
fall victim to violent crimes such as murder and robbery than people
living in larger cities such as St. Louis or Kansas City.

The relative lack of random violence has preserved "that small-town
feel," said Tim Logan, an ambulance driver for St. John's Hospital.

"I think (property crime) is forgotten a lot quicker than crimes
against a person," Logan said while picnicking at Sequiota Park with
daughter Olivia, 2, on Tuesday. "Property can be replaced -- lives can't."

Defining Safety

Springfield Police Chief Lynn Rowe defines safety in terms similar to Patel's.

"Would I be concerned about becoming a victim while walking down the
street?" Rowe said. By that standard, "Springfield is a very safe community."

The rash of violence last weekend -- the two homicides and a
neighborhood brawl in which a 19-year-old Springfield man was
severely beaten -- is not necessarily evidence of a trend, he said.

"You can always have a spike like that -- and believe me, we're
watching that -- but there's no indication that will happen again
this weekend," Rowe said. "I'm not gearing up for another weekend of
homicides."

Not everyone agrees.

Robert Odom, who grew up on the city's north and west sides and now
lives near Grant Beach Park, said crime has become more prevalent
than it was when he was a child.

"I wouldn't let my kids walk around here at night," Odom said
Thursday afternoon, as the sound of children splashing in the Grant
Beach pool carried through the park.

The June 9 and 10 killings of Javier Gaspar and David Kelly each took
place within a half mile of the park.

"People used to be able to sleep on their porches," Odom said. "You
can't do that anymore."

Geography may partly explain the differing perspectives and experiences.

The police department's annual survey of residents shows a widespread
belief that Springfield's north side is more dangerous -- in 2005,
nearly one in 10 respondents said they felt unsafe there.

Police data shows that in 2005 about two-thirds of calls for service,
not including traffic accidents or rapes, originated north of Sunshine Street.

Calls can be tracked to a city block, allowing police to focus their
efforts on hot spots of crime.

Rowe said officers respond most frequently to areas where there are
bars, large commercial areas and multifamily housing complexes. "You
can expect more calls for service because of population density."

Many northside residents feel the area -- which they argue is
unfairly lumped under a single designation -- gets a bad rap.

"I feel safe here," said Terry Harris, who lives near Doling Park,
north of Kearney Street. "We've got good people living around here."

Howard and Tracy Little, who live on a well-kept strip of West
Calhoun Street within walking distance of the house where Gaspar was
killed, said they've lived in south Springfield but prefer the north.

"I've lived here all my life," Tracy Little said. "It doesn't bother me."

A trash truck driver, Howard Little starts his workday at 1 a.m.

"You see things all over," he said. "I've had guys jump out of trash
cans they've been sleeping in on the south side, too."

Violence Seldom Random

Nationally, violent crime increased by 2.5 percent in 2005 -- the
largest increase since 1991 -- according to preliminary results
released this week by the FBI.

The Uniform Crime Reporting program tracks more than a dozen
categories of crime reported by law enforcement agencies.

Serious violent and property crimes, collectively known as Part I
crimes, include murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary,
larceny theft, auto theft and arson.

Although imperfect, UCR data provide one of the few standards for
comparing crime among cities.

"Some portions of it are better than others," said Jack Riley, a
senior policy analyst at the RAND Corp., a public policy research organization.

"Homicide numbers are some of the best," he said, because they are
easily observed and relatively few in number. "In contrast, crimes
like burglary, robbery and other things, there can be substantial
under reporting."

Drug offenses are not included among the UCR's Part I crimes but are
often related to the crimes that are, Riley said. "You'll see it
reflected in the Part I crimes."

In Springfield, the number of reported violent crimes increased by
3.2 percent -- a larger increase than that experienced nationally but
lower than the 3.4 percent increase averaged by similar-size cities,
or the 5.7 percent bump experienced in the Midwest as a whole.

When the number of crimes is adjusted for population, Springfield's
violent crime rate in 2005 was about one quarter of that in St. Louis
and one-third the rate in Little Rock.

Robberies and aggravated assaults have increased slightly in recent
years, but Rowe said random violence is rare.

"The bulk of the serious crimes occur between people that know each
other," Rowe said, noting that was the case in both recent killings.
"If it was a random street crime, we'd be getting the word out to
people to be careful."

Randy Arnall, who grew up near Hillcrest High School and now lives
just outside the northeast city limits, said the recent slayings
affect his feeling of safety less than random crime, such as drive-by
shootings.

"That would make me feel a lot less safe," he said.

The 2001 abduction, rape and murder of Amanda Morton of Strafford was
far more disconcerting, said Arnall, who has three sons. "When I hear
some kid got snatched, it freaks me out."

Stearman, the MSU professor, said the rarity of random violent crime
means residents are more likely to be concerned about less serious offenses.

"One of our main concerns is controlling speeding in our
neighborhood," Stearman said, echoing the most common concern cited
by respondents to the 2005 police survey. "If that's your main
concern, I think that things are pretty good, really."

Property Crime And Meth

Property crime, especially larceny theft -- which includes crimes
suchas shoplifting and car break-ins -- has been a continuing problem
in Springfield.

In 2004, the most recent year that comparative data is available, the
city's property crime rate per 100,000 residents was more than twice
the national average and more than 70 percent higher than the average
for cities with populations of 100,000 to 249,999 people.

The gap has likely widened. The number of reported property crimes
dropped 1.6 percent nationally in 2005 and by 2.6 percent among
similar-size cities. In Springfield, property crime increased by 3.7 percent.

Rowe said methamphetamine could be a factor in Springfield's
higher-than-average property crime rate.

Although there is little statistical research linking the two,
anecdotal evidence suggests a connection between meth use and theft, he said.

From 1998 to 2004, more meth labs were seized in Missouri than in
any state other than California. Chief Deputy Jim Arnott of the
Greene County Sheriff's Department has estimated that 50 percent to
75 percent of inmates in the Greene County Jail are incarcerated for
meth-related offenses.

Almost one-third of the state and local law enforcement agencies
surveyed by the National Drug Intelligence Center for its 2005
National Drug Threat Assessment cited meth as the drug that most
contributes to property crime.

And 70 percent of the officials who responded to a 2005 survey by the
National Association of Counties said methamphetamine use has led to
an increase in burglary and robbery.

Before joining RAND, public policy analyst Riley worked at the U.S.
Department of Justice's National Institute of Justice, where he
helped research the way drugs such as crack cocaine, heroin and
methamphetamine are marketed and used.

"We found some pretty substantial differences in the types of crime
that methamphetamine, versus the other drugs, was associated with,"
he said. "(Methamphetamine users are) less likely to engage in
robbery and perhaps more likely to engage in burglary or petty theft."

Rowe said new laws restricting the sale of pseudoephedrine -- a key
ingredient in home-made meth -- have reduced the number of meth labs
seized locally. "But the use of meth doesn't look like it has slowed
down at all."

He worries property crime could continue to increase as local users
- -- with fewer opportunities to make their own -- are forced to buy
more expensive imported meth.

Data from the first quarter of 2006 indicate the upward trend in
property crime may be continuing, he said.

Violent crime as a whole was down slightly compared with the first
three months of 2005, but robberies increased by 19 percent in the
January-to-March period. A surge in burglaries and larceny theft led
to 242 more property crimes than last year, a 9.3 percent increase.

"It may hold (through the year). It may not," said Rowe, who added
that the department is not planning any adjustment in its
crime-fighting tactics. "We're watching this, but there won't be any
immediate change."