THE CRIME GAME

This time last year, newspapers, when talking about Toronto, used
phrases such as "summer of violence," "rash of shootings" and "spate
of gun crime." People were afraid.

As this summer cools, we're less afraid of workaday crime. (Terrorism
is another matter.) The headlines reflect the reality: The number of
shootings in Toronto is markedly less than this time last year. Is
this the result of tough Tory talk about mandatory minimums and
conditional sentences?

Probably not. It's likely just the valley to last year's peak. Crime
is organic, a function of so many individual decisions. It will never
be predictable with a high degree of accuracy.

Toronto police have been busy in the last year chasing street gangs,
and that could explain this year's relative tranquility. Or it could
be that some of last year's street conflicts have burned themselves
out.

Whatever the reason, last year's record number of shootings does not
appear to have signalled the advent of dark times. The lesson is that
public policy should never be forged in the emotional heat of the
moment. Fear is a primal reaction that has little to do with actual
risk. One well-publicized murder can do more to put a city on edge
than 20 low-profile killings. Several similar crimes can happen within
a short period out of mere coincidence, but that won't stop amateur
criminologists from identifying a trend.

Fear does have its uses. Last summer was a catalyst for useful, if
difficult, public conversations about sentencing, race, gun control
and community services. The trick is to keep those conversations
going, in a civil fashion, no matter what the headlines are in any
given summer.