MEXICO'S POLITICAL CRISIS LETS DRUG VIOLENCE SPREAD

Cartels' 'Wide-Open' Field Threatens Officials, U.S. Tourists and Investors

MEXICO CITY - Mexican drug gangs once limited to the north are
cutting a swath across the nation, leaving behind headless rivals and
helpless police as they take advantage of a presidential election
crisis to settle scores, analysts and officials in the U.S. and Mexico say.

The historic level of drug violence not only threatens Mexican judges
and politicians, who once were immune, but also American tourists and
U.S. investors, as the cartels move into vacation corridors such as
Acapulco-Zihuatanejo on the Pacific Coast, and Morelia-Uruapan in the
central state of Michoacan.

A Dallas businessman recently pulled out of a $40 million project
near the Zihuatanejo resort. Also Online

"We didn't think this was the right moment," said Carol Davenport, a
real estate agent from Arlington now working in Mexico, who
represented the businessman. "The dire situation didn't exactly
inspire investor confidence," she added, referring to a rash of
killings in the area.

Political Stability at Risk

The scale of the lawlessness, its geographical reach and the apparent
inability of the government to keep it in check threaten Mexico's
political stability, some analysts warn.

Javier Ibarrola, who writes on the drug trade and the military for
the Milenio newspaper, said President Vicente Fox's once-promising
drug fight "is now just done in speeches" as violence and
narco-corruption spiral out of control.

"I have never seen anything like this, ever," Mr. Ibarrola said. "The
[narcos] have the field wide open to them."

Mexican authorities insist they are confronting the drug cartels
head-on and point to the recent capture of one of the most-wanted
capos in Mexico and the United States, reputed Tijuana cartel boss
Francisco Javier Arellano Felix. He was captured by the U.S. Coast
Guard, but Mexican officials took part of the credit.

But some analysts say an atmosphere of impunity in the nation is not
limited to the narcos.

Cartel turf wars extend from Chihuahua to Cancun and have taken 1,500
lives so far this year. Fueling the situation, analysts say, is the
unresolved presidential election, in which leftist leader Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador has refused to accept an apparent defeat.
Mexico's Federal Electoral Tribunal is expected to name ruling-party
candidate Felipe Calderon president-elect in the coming days.

Mr. Lopez Obrador's supporters have taken over the capital's streets
and plazas, disrupting traffic and commerce. Seeking to avoid
confrontation, the local and federal governments have allowed
demonstrators to commit crimes ranging from obstructing traffic to
destroying government property without punishment.

The same is true in the southern state of Oaxaca, where the center of
the capital city is controlled by striking teachers and leftist
organizations that may have ties to guerrilla groups, according to
some Mexican and U.S. officials.

Mexican analysts say that fears of a broader confrontation have kept
the government from moving against the demonstrators.

"The drug cartels are taking control of cities, coasts and highways
up and down the nation, while the government and we the people are
passive spectators before the images of the tortured and beheaded in
the media," wrote Homero Aridjis, a political columnist. "And with
the post-election political drunkenness of [Lopez Obrador], with his
marches, sit-ins and threats, many of us are on the verge of a
nervous breakdown."

Mr. Fox has signaled that a crackdown against demonstrators may be
coming, if the politicians behind them continue to resist dialogue.

Meanwhile, drug cartels dedicated both to moving narcotics to the
U.S. and selling them in Mexican cities have moved into the apparent
void. They are suspected of killing a federal judge last week near
Mexico City, setting off a panic among the judiciary, which is a
traditional target for bribes but almost never for bullets. Some want
bodyguards.

"There are some real worrisome signs because there's a power vacuum,"
said Ana Maria Salazar, an expert on national security and former
high-ranking Pentagon official. "We still don't know who the next
president is, and that only makes the situation more precarious."

A U.S. law enforcement official agreed about the vacuum of authority.
"That's huge," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"It's not good. As long as you don't have leadership, you don't have
military, or police willing to fill the void. This means drug
traffickers will take advantage of the situation and settle scores."

Jorge Fernandez Menendez, co-author of the new book, From the Maras
to the Zetas: the Secrets of Drug Trafficking from Colombia to
Chicago, said politicians who control 90 percent of the country's
police are more reluctant than ever to take on the cartels.

"There are local and state politicians whose intention is not to
participate in the drug fight either because they are complicit, in
some cases, or they are scared, or because they simply don't want
trouble," Mr. Fernandez said. "If the state and local governments
don't get involved, the situation is going to become very complicated
.. and destabilizing."

Already, there are signs of instability:

. In Apatzigan, Michoacan, the police force allegedly was purchased
by the Nuevo Laredo-based Zetas, the enforcement arm of the Gulf
cartel, according to federal officials. An elite corps of 60 local
officers was specially trained and equipped earlier this year to
defend their new bosses against members of the rival Sinaloa cartel.
Federal police moved in and took the local force into custody.

. In the southern state of Tabasco, a commando group allegedly led by
the Zetas attacked a police station after a reputed Zeta leader was
arrested in mid-July, nearly freeing the prisoner.

. In Acapulco, where the Zetas are fighting the dominant Sinaloa
cartel, gunmen have killed dozens of people this year, including the
head of security for Mayor Felix Salgado and a military intelligence
officer responsible for major drug seizures.

. Once-rare beheadings and dismemberments with warning notes
sometimes left on the victims now occur almost daily occurrence in
the cartels' turf wars. Some analysts have suggested that former
Guatemalan anti-guerrilla forces called Kaibiles and Central American
gang members, or Maras, are now doing some of the dirty work for the
Mexican narcos.

. On Aug. 7 in Ciudad Juarez, assailants gunned down Marcos Arturo
Nazar Contreras, chief of the Chihuahua State Agency for
Investigations in Ciudad Juarez, firing more than 30 bullets into his
vehicle. He had been appointed in May by state Attorney General
Patricia Gonzalez, who has waged an aggressive campaign against drug
traffickers.

Rise in Kidnappings

Adding to the expanding climate of terror is the dramatic rise in
kidnappings, particularly in border towns such as Nuevo Laredo, a
major trade gateway to Texas. In the last two weeks, law enforcement
officials say that as many as four Americans have been kidnapped in
Nuevo Laredo and the northern industrial city of Monterrey. All have
been released.

"There is a sign of real desperation as drug traffickers try to find
ways to subsidize their operations," a U.S. law enforcement official
said on condition of anonymity. "They have a lot of overhead costs
that have to be covered, and express kidnappings provide fast cash."
Express kidnappings involve brief detentions and ransoms that can be
paid quickly.

Three to five kidnappings are said to occur daily in Nuevo Laredo.

And while drug cartels are expending more resources in central and
southern Mexico, they continue their violent activities in northern
border states, such as Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon and Chihuahua.

In Monterrey, the 31-year-old son of a former police commander was
gunned down Thursday in his Hummer SUV, bringing to 35 the number of
drug killings this year in the state of Nuevo Leon, police said.

"We're seeing little Nuevo Laredos spread throughout Mexico," said
the U.S. law enforcement official, referring to the violence.