NEW STRATEGY PUSHED IN AFGHAN DRUG FIGHT

A sharp spike in the illicit Afghan narcotics trade, despite major
efforts by U.S. and Afghan forces over the past year, continues to
fuel an insurgency that is increasingly killing American soldiers and
destabilizing the country.

In light of devastating figures expected to be announced Saturday by
the United Nations, U.S. officials plan to urge a shift in policy that
would involve getting tougher with regional Afghan officials who fail
to meet new goals for destroying poppy fields in their areas, the
Post-Dispatch has learned.

Local Afghan officials who dont act aggressively enough could be
fired, while those who reduce poppy cultivation would get money for
economic development. The U.S. action is spurred by concerns that a
record of 370,500-395,200 acres might be under cultivation, up from
264,290 acres last year.

And a push is likely in Congress next week for aerial spraying of
poppy fields - a highly sensitive matter bitterly opposed by Afghan
President Hamid Karzai because it recalls the specter of the Soviet
occupation and could spark social unrest among impoverished farmers.

Opium extracted from Afghan poppies is turned into the bulk of the
worlds heroin supply, with profits helping fund the Taliban
resurgence, four years after its U.S.-led overthrow. The tyrannical
regime provided a haven for Osama bin Laden to train al-Qaida
ter'rorists and plan the Sept. 11 attacks.

We know the numbers are bad, and that we need to do better, said Tom
Schweich, the State Departments point man on the Afghan narcotics
trade. I dont know the exact number, but it'll be high, very high.

At the same time, Schweich, a St. Louis native and former aide to Sen.
John C. Danforth, contends that it is too soon to call the U.S. effort
a failure. It takes a while to get a huge poppy problem under control,
Schweich said. He also says the U.N. statistics wont reflect
eradication done over the past year, because many farmers who have
seen fields destroyed will be deterred from planting for the next
season - which begins later this fall.

The poppy acreage currently being counted was planted last fall,
before the U.S. effort intensified.

About 10 percent of Afghanistans poppy fields have been eradicated
this year, more than before, Schweich said. Efforts at public
persuasion, providing alternative crops for farmers, interdiction of
drugs being trafficked and prosecutions also have increased, he said.

Critics counter that U.S. policies are flawed because they stress
punitive actions. Emmanuel Reinert, London-based head of the Senlis
Council, a European global security think tank, says that without
economic development, eradication of the Afghan fields actually
worsens the situation in the country.

You alienate the local population, and they go directly to the
Taliban, who provide them with protection and compensation, Reinert
said. Im not saying this is likely to happen; Im saying it is
happening. We have pictures of starving kids because the fields of
their parents have been eradicated, and those people are turning back
to the Taliban.

He argues that the United States doesnt have the luxury of
time.

The State Department has been pursuing very similar eradication
policies in Latin America, with very little success so far, he said.
In Afghanistan we cannot afford that kind of thing, because we are
dealing with a country that is at the nexus of the war on terror. Its
not about drugs, its about Afghanistan going back to the Taliban.

Barnett Rubin, of New York Universitys Center on International
Cooperation, has served as a special adviser to the United Nations on
Afghanistan. He also says economic development is the key.

Where are our programs to expand irrigation? Where are our programs
for agricultural credit and debt relief? Rural electrification? The
effort is a fraud, Rubin said.

Afghanistan needs a concentrated effort to bring development and
security, but because the Bush administration never took Afg'hanistan
seriously, immediately went to Iraq, and has always under-funded
Afghanistan, we do not have anything like the programs we need, he
said.

Aerial spraying

Rep. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., says that the situation is drastic and that
strong law-enforcement action is required. This will be an
unprecedented crop, he said, calling the anti-narcotics effort a
disaster whose failure has dramatically fueled the resurgence of the
Taliban.

When the House Appropriations Committee convenes next week to discuss
Afghanistan, Kirk said he will call for aerial spraying, which is
often more effective than crushing plants with tractors or rooting out
poppies by hand. Thats particularly the case because the poppy fields
are often in remote areas and are guarded by insurgents.

Aerial spraying is critical to the success of the program, he said,
adding that its deterrent effect would likely mean that only a few
fields would have to be sprayed before farmers agreed to grow legal
crops, even if theyre less lucrative.

The minute they hear a neighbor has been sprayed, they will
self-eradicate their fields and see what money is available in the
alternative development programs, Kirk said.

But the political counselor at the Afghan Embassy in Washington,
Ashraf Haidari, said that would alienate farmers trying to eke out a
living and make governing even harder. A major reason for the increase
in poppy growing this year is the failure of Afghanistans allies to
provide enough money so Afghan officials could deliver the assistance
we promised the farmers, the alternative livelihoods, he said.

Karzai called last week for a new strategy against opium, saying the
current effort has failed. His plan appears to partly resemble what
the United States intends to introduce, because both would set
regional eradication goals based on what other local options farmers
have.

While the Afghan government has the final say over policies enacted in
its country, the United States has a good deal of influence and,
because of the money it contributes, is in a position to help reward
regional officials who succeed.

Mohammed Nabi Hussaini, a senior official in the Afghan Ministry of
Counter Narcotics, applauded the idea of firing or prosecuting
regional officials who fail to deliver because of corruption, while
rewarding those who perform.

Eradication is, without doubt, the deterrent factor in controlling
poppy cultivation, he said.

Ali Jalali, a former Afghan interior minister who worked closely on
the anti-narcotics effort, said he believes the U.S.-led program will
work over time.

Schweich, the No. 2 official at the State Departments Bureau of
International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, will meet in two
weeks in Kabul with representatives from Britain, Afghanistan and
other allies to plan the new policy.