ARE DRUG CARTELS GAINING UPPER HAND IN MEXICO?

As Violence Surges, U.S. Officials Fear Government May Be Losing
Control Of Fight

WASHINGTON - Once encouraged by Mexico's assault on drug traffickers,
U.S. officials now worry that the cartels' growing geographic reach
and the recent killing of a judge and police officials are signs that
the government may be losing control of the drug fight.

The powerful cartels are securing smuggling routes through Central
America and are recruiting gunmen from there, say senior U.S.
officials in Washington and Mexico City.

"The concern is growing. There is a dramatic spike in violence," said
one senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity. The
tense presidential succession now under way in Mexico will make the
coming months "very dangerous," the official said.

Law enforcement officials from both countries will meet today in the
Texas border city of Laredo, in part at the urging of U.S. Ambassador
Tony Garza, who last week described lawlessness in Mexico as an urgent
problem. The U.S. Embassy issued a new travel advisory to Americans,
warning them of a rising level of "brutal violence" throughout Mexico,
especially along the border with Texas.

Mexican officials acknowledge the violence but say it is a result of
their aggressive law enforcement efforts. They say the U.S. must share
responsibility for the problem because of the continuing demand for
illegal drugs. Foreign Minister Luis Ernesto Derbez called Mr. Garza's
comments "unfortunate."

U.S. officials say there has been an accelerating breakdown of
Mexico's rule of law, underscored by a spate of attacks on judicial
and law enforcement officials:

* On Sept. 12, Police Chief Enrique
Barrera Nevarez, 48, was gunned down in front of his house in Linares,
just south of Monterrey in the state of Nuevo Leon, which borders Texas.

* On Sept. 1, the top police investigator for Nuevo Leon, Marcelo
Garza y Garza, was shot to death in an upscale neighborhood of
Monterrey.

* On Aug. 17, Federal Judge Rene Nieto Contreras was shot
and killed in broad daylight in Toluca, in the state of Mexico. Judges
are rarely attacked in Mexico, and some have begun demanding
protection.

* On Aug. 7, assailants gunned down Marcos Arturo Nazar
Contreras, chief of the Chihuahua State Agency for Investigations, in
Ciudad Juarez, firing more than 30 bullets into his vehicle. Juarez is
across the border from El Paso. "This wave of killings is very
unusual, rare and very strange," said Jose Arturo Yanez Romero, a
professor at Mexico's National Institute for Criminal Law. "These
people were not targeted before, and that's what's so worrisome,
especially when there's no accountability."

Colombia comparisons

The attacks against public officials have led some U.S. officials to
compare the situation in Mexico to Colombia in the 1980s and '90s,
when drug cartels declared war on the government and targeted
police, judges and even politicians.

"It's a practice, a pattern of terrorism in that they are trying to
influence public opinion about who's really in charge and what their
capability is and to silence those who may want to come forward and
help both of our governments," said a senior U.S. anti-narcotics
official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"Mexico is waking up to a new era of brutality. Anyone who gets in the
way, including law enforcement, pays the price. They're turning it
into this public spectacle. That's alarming."

Most of the victims of drug violence continue to be members of the
drug-trafficking organizations, which are battling for control of turf
and trading routes, officials say. More than 1,500 people have been
killed this year in drug-related violence, and the violence has taken
a brutal turn, with 13 beheadings in recent weeks.

Last week, authorities in the central state of Michoacan arrested
three Guatemalan men, two of whom identified themselves as former
soldiers. The men had 12 military-style assault rifles and nearly
3,000 bullets. Investigators said that they may have belonged to a
brutal anti-insurgency battalion in Guatemala known as Kaibiles and
that they may have participated in six beheadings this month in
Uruapan, Michoacan.

Prosecutors said the men testified that there are more former
Guatemalan soldiers in the state, fighting a fierce turf war between
the Gulf cartel, based in Nuevo Laredo, and the local Milenio
organization. Current and former U.S. law enforcement officials say
the brutal tactics, if not halted, may travel beyond the U.S.-Mexico
border and into the United States. "If these beheadings and other
types of violence aren't curtailed in the killing fields of Mexico,
don't be surprised that soon they will find their way to El Paso,
Laredo or the Dallas metroplex," said Phil Jordan, former U.S. Drug
Enforcement Administration chief in Dallas. "Narcoterrorism knows no
boundaries."

Fighting corruption

U.S. officials are urging the incoming government
of President-elect Felipe Calderon to deepen cooperation and to carry
out, in the words of one, "the mother of all wars" against widening
corruption, sometimes of entire police forces. "We need to get to the
point where we trust one another, where we don't feel like we're
compromising our operation because we're working together and sharing
intelligence," the senior U.S. official said. Aides to Mr. Calderon,
who has defined public security as one of his three priorities, said
they would use aggressive money-laundering enforcement to seek to cut
off the cash that fuels cartel violence and empower the military to
take a more active role in anti-drug operations. Technically, the
military cannot now enforce civilian law.

A new study by Mr. Yanez found that 3,502 federal investigators of the
attorney general's office have been investigated for corruption since
2001, and hundreds more for other crimes. The attorney general's
office has 12,000 employees. In a presentation this month at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, Mr.
Yanez said that 400 members of the military have been killed in the
battle against drug traffickers since 2000. More than 60 federal
investigators have been killed in that period, along with hundreds
from state and municipal police forces.

One of the issues troubling U.S. officials is the lack of response
from Mexican law enforcement authorities in going after criminals
who've assassinated government officials =AD setting a dangerous
precedent for fellow police authorities and elected officials.

The recent killings of the judge and the police officials are examples
of "where a line must be drawn and not allowed to cross," said the
senior U.S. anti-narcotics official. "What we saw happening 10 to 15
years ago in Colombia is now very, very alive and well in Mexico. "The
dynamics between Mexico and Colombia are different, but the challenges
are the same," the official said. "Mexico is waking up to a new era of
violence never seen before."

Police under fire In Villa Madero, Michoacan, the entire 32-member
police force resigned or failed to show up for work this week after
being threatened by drug traffickers, local authorities said. Members
of the force complained about a lack of arms and communications
equipment to protect themselves. The town is near the state capital of
Morelia.

Mexican officials reject the comparison to Colombia. "How do you
measure that?" said a senior Mexican official, speaking on condition
of anonymity. The official, who helps oversee his country's anti-drug
policy, added that the issue of drug trafficking is a shared problem
with the U.S. and said that "blaming one side does more to hurt than
help the fight." U.S. authorities agree that drug trafficking is a
shared responsibility and have praised the government of President
Vicente Fox, insisting that cooperation has never been better and
citing the extradition last week of drug kingpin Francisco Rafael
Arellano Felix.

"While I'm the first to point out those instances where more can be
done, particularly along the border, I've also got to say that this
administration has been aggressive about extraditions and committed to
doing what they can, when they can," Mr. Garza said. "President Fox
has been unwavering in that regard, and I recognize and appreciate
both his conviction and courage."

Staff writer Laurence Iliff in Mexico City contributed to this report.