SEEMING SPLIT OVER SAME-SEX ISSUES ON BALLOT

Coloradans appear ready to ban gay marriage while endorsing legal
benefits for same-sex couples, but a new poll shows the state is not
willing to legalize marijuana.

Residents also support requiring school districts to spend 65 percent
of their budgets on instruction that directly affects students, the
poll shows.

With the election just nine days out and early voting already
underway, the poll of 625 registered voters gives a glimpse of how the
state is likely to vote on four of the more contested ballot questions.

For instance, voters have largely made up their minds on the
initiatives to constitutionally ban gay marriage and legalize
marijuana. On each issue, the percentage of undecided voters is within
the margin that separates for and against.

But the poll, commissioned by The Denver Post, also shows that for all
the money and time spent on campaigns, voters have stuck to their
first impressions. The results of the recent poll vary only slightly
from a poll conducted in February.

"There is usually not a ton of movement," said University of Denver
political science assistant professor Seth Masket. "There is kind of a
rule of thumb that if an initiative, shortly before an election, is at
less than 50 percent ... it is fairly unlikely to pass."

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research from Oct. 24
to 26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Pot Legalization Trailing

The Safer Alternative for Enjoyable Recreation group managed a
successful campaign to legalize possession of up to an ounce of
marijuana in Denver last year, but its effort to also change state law
trails by 23 percentage points. About 57 percent of those polled were
against Amendment 44, while just 34 percent favored it.

Mason Tvert, who heads the SAFER campaign, said the poll was
inaccurate.

"Virtually nobody under 30 has a land line" to allow them to take part
in the poll, Tvert said.

In Middle on Gay Rights

Voters are likely to come down in the middle of the debate over gay
rights.

Constitutional Amendment 43, which would define marriage as only
between a man and a woman, is up 8 points, with 51 percent in favor
and 43 percent against.

But Referendum I, which would create domestic partnerships that extend
many legal protections of marriage to same-sex couples, is also leading.

Of those polled, 47 percent were for the amendment and 42 percent were
against it.

Both issues fall largely along partisan lines: Democrats favor
Referendum I 73 percent to 19 percent and oppose Amendment 43 68
percent to 30 percent.

Independents are evenly split on banning gay marriage, with 46 percent
for it and 45 percent against it. But 50 percent of unaffiliated
voters are for domestic partnerships, while 38 percent oppose it.

"It is not surprising to me that voters would, on average, be favoring
both, although I doubt there is actually a lot of voters voting yes on
both," Masket said.

And the executive director of Coloradans for Fairness and Equality,
the effort to pass Referendum I, said the campaign focused on what
they call "the yes-yes vote."

"It's a substantial amount of people in Colorado," Sean Duffy said.
"It's moderate Democrats, it's Republicans, independents."

Duffy said his campaign tailored Referendum I to "allow people who
wish to ban gay marriage to put it in the constitution, and yet deal
with these basic legal rights without authorizing gay marriage."

The campaigns on opposing sides of Amendment 43 took the poll as good
news.

Coloradans for Marriage executive director Jon Paul said he was
pleased to see the amendment winning despite what he called "a
formidable opponent with a significant amount of money."

"I think what this shows is that as long as the people of Colorado go
to the polls, we should win the marriage amendment."

But Lisa Moreno, director of Say No to 43, said the poll showed that
"Coloradans aren't buying it."

"They know that the most important issue in the state is not gay
marriage," Moreno said.

Tony Raitz of Colorado Springs is one of those "yes-yes" voters. He
said he makes a distinction between legal rules and the institution of
marriage.

"I don't see any conflict between the two," Raitz said.

Michele Stumbaugh of Loveland said she wants to make sure on the
details of both measures.

"I would not want to see rights and privileges being given or taken
frivolously," she said.

School Rules Likely

The constitutional amendment requiring school districts to spend 65
percent of their operating budgets on programs that directly affect
students is up 6 percentage points with likely voters.

Forty-three percent of those polled supported Amendment 39, while 37
percent opposed it.