CALDERON'S PLAN FOR DRUG WAR HAS MIXED SUCCESS

MEXICO CITY - President Felipe Calderon's deployment of more than
20,000 soldiers and federal police in the drug war has reduced rampant
violence in the areas where they were sent. But the narco cartels'
power remains virtually intact, and gangland-style killings have
spiked in at least three states formerly immune from the menace,
officials and drug experts say.

Since Calderon launched the first arm of the anti-drug offensive on
Dec. 7 - just days after his inauguration - soldiers have arrested
hundreds of suspected traffickers, seized tons of drugs and destroyed
thousands of acres of marijuana and heroin poppy fields, according to
the government.

But only 94 people have been indicted so far, none of them top-ranking
cartel members. Meanwhile, gangland-style killings have spread to the
states of Aguascalientes in central Mexico, Oaxaca in southern Mexico
and Campeche in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Earlier this month, suspected cartel hitmen gunned down four municipal
police officers in the city of Aguascalientes. And on Tuesday, police
there discovered a body dumped in a plastic bag with the message:
"This is for mistreating the Family."

It was the first sighting in the state of the shadowy gang blamed for
more than a dozen beheadings in Michoacan, an agricultural state
hundreds of miles to the south. In contrast, three drug homicides were
reported in Aguascalientes in all of last year.

"These cartels have been advancing nationwide; they are present in
each and every one of our states," Aguascalientes Gov. Luis Armando
Reynosa said in pleading for federal aid.

Despite what the government has called an unprecedented military
offensive in seven states, the country's main cartels remain virtually
intact, according to an internal report from the Attorney General's
office cited in El Universal newspaper. Two of the most powerful
gangs, the Juarez and Sinaloa cartels, have joined forces and forged
"alliances that have increased their presence both nationally and
internationally," the report concluded.

An official at the Attorney General's office said he would "not deny
the existence of the report," but declined to comment on its contents.

Last month's extraditions to the United States of several suspected
crime bosses have also done little to weaken the cartels, the report
said.

The most prominent among the 15 suspects sent north is Osiel Cardenas,
the alleged leader of the ruthless Gulf cartel who is awaiting trial
in Houston. But the Matamoros-based gang, which is blamed for
smuggling tons of cocaine across the Texas border, continues to
operate in 17 Mexican states under the leadership of his brother,
Ezequiel, officials say.

"Until recently, the impression on the part of the police and the
public was that if you severed the head of the cartel, the problem
ended," Alejandro Rubido, undersecretary for public security, told
Reforma newspaper. "Reality has taught us it's not like that."

Still, the government says the military-led offensive has succeeded in
its main objective: to stem the skyrocketing drug violence that
claimed at least 2,000 lives last year.

The presence of troops has reduced drug-related killings by 72 percent
in Michoacan state and 56 percent in Tijuana, the federal security
secretary, Genaro Garcia Luna, said.

Since taking office, Calderon has made the battle against the drug
gangs a top priority and gone further than his predecessors in relying
on the military to lead the fight. He rewarded those efforts this week
by announcing a nearly 50 percent pay raise for soldiers.

So far, that risk appears to be paying off, at least in terms of
public opinion.

Forty-seven percent of Mexicans said the anti-drug crackdowns had been
a success, compared with 23 percent who said they'd failed, according
to a survey by the polling firm Mitofsky. In addition, 84 percent
supported using the army to combat traffickers, and 73 percent said
they want the government to send troops to their city.

That support extends across party lines, according to another poll in
mid-January by Ipsos-Bimsa. At least one-third of those surveyed from
the three major parties said fighting narco-traffickers should be the
army's main job.

"The Mexican state is stronger than the criminals operating in this
country, and we know we have the support of the entire society,"
Attorney General Francisco Ramirez said Sunday.