CHAVEZ'S INFLUENCE HOVERS OVER BUSH TRIP TO LATIN AMERICA

Like many Americans at this time of year, President Bush is striking
out for southern climes.

Packing strategies for fostering trade, fighting drug-traffickers and
fending off the regionwide shift to the political left, Bush flies
out Thursday to start a swing through the friendlier parts of Latin America.

He'll talk energy and free trade in Brazil and Uruguay. Those topics
- -- as well as crime, punishment and border jumping -- will dominate
the conversations in Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico.

At every turn, Bush almost certainly will work to counter Hugo
Chavez, Venezuela's leftist president. Chavez ranks among the world's
more vocal and influential Bush-bashers, and his aura hovers over
Bush's trip like a holiday-spoiling drizzle.

"It's a very calculated effort to become more proactive in
confronting Chavez and shoring up U.S. allies in the region," said
Cynthia Arnson, who heads the Latin America program at the Woodrow
Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C.

Brazil and Uruguay are governed by moderate leftists inclined to
support market economics and trade. Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico
have elected conservative presidents who probably would feel among
brethren at a GOP fundraiser.

Still, the trip's rhetoric likely will exceed its reach, Arnson and
other analysts say.

"He's coming at a time of extreme vulnerability," said Rafael
Fernandez de Castro, who teaches foreign relations at ITAM, a leading
Mexico City university.

What Bush is up against

The White House world view remains centered on the Iraq war and its
consequences. The 2008 U.S. presidential campaign already has begun,
sapping some of Bush's domestic influence. Latin America continues
both veering left and riding a commodities boom that has loosened its
dependence on the Bush administration's economic policies. For its
part, Washington is trying to portray the seven-day, five-country
trip -- Bush's eighth to Latin America since taking office -- as a
show of support for democratic governments. But the visit also is
meant to deliver the message that the governments must lift up their
poor and vulnerable, said the administration's top diplomat for the
region, Thomas Shannon.

The foray is Bush's first extended trip to the region since a
September 2005 visit to Argentina and Brazil that many analysts rate
a disaster. Attending a regional summit, Bush weathered large street
protests -- some led by Chavez -- that denounced the Iraq war and
Washington-sponsored free trade.

Emphasizing his continued opposition to Bush, Chavez plans to visit
Argentina at the same time Bush is touring neighboring Brazil and
Uruguay. At a recent news conference in Venezuela, Chavez said Bush's
swing through the region is an attempt to divide the loyalties of its
leaders and public. He called for street protests at every stop.

Chavez's role in region

Bankrolled by more than $50 billion a year in oil earnings, much of
it from sales to U.S. consumers, Chavez has been throwing money in
the region like a rich uncle. He's bought up more than $3 billion
worth of risky debt in Argentina, built roads and schools in Bolivia,
promised electricity plants in Nicaragua and sold oil on the cheap to
many friendly countries.

In contrast, the Bush administration often has seemed like a
tight-fisted distant relative. U.S. aid to the region totals $1.7
billion this year -- nearly half of that going to Colombia -- and
will drop to about $300 million in 2008.

Not surprisingly, Argentine President Nestor Kirchner has been cozy
with Chavez, and Bolivia's Evo Morales, Ecuador's Rafael Correa and
Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega appear to be ardent allies.

"Free trade and counternarcotics have always been the Bush
administration's agenda, and these are things that -- with a few
notable exceptions -- Latin America does not see as a priority," said
Arnson, the Washington analyst.

"Poverty, inequality and exclusion constitute the social agenda of
the hemisphere and explain the rise of so many leftist governments," she said.

Then there's the moderates

Still, Brazil's president -- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who's
universally called Lula -- and Uruguay's Tabare Vazquez have proved
more moderate leftists, publicly expressing their friendship with
Chavez while maintaining cordial ties to the Bush administration.
Although Lula trends left, Brazil remains a functioning democracy
with a stable economy that offers an alternative to Chavez-style politics.

"This is precisely the type of government the United States would
like to see in South America," said Paolo Sotero, a Brazilian analyst
at the Wilson Center. "Brazil is a natural ally."

In addition, Brazil and the United States are the world leaders in
producing ethanol, the plant-based fuel being used as a blend with
gasoline in cars. Combined, the two countries could expand and
dominate the world ethanol market, Sotero said.

Closer to home, the Bush administration sees Mexico as another foil
to Chavez in the region, a key trading partner and as a crucial ally
in the drug war. Few were more relieved than the White House when
Calderon won a controversial squeaker election over leftist rival
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in the summer.

Both Calderon and the White House intend to push for an overhaul of
immigration law this year, of which Mexico would be the prime
beneficiary. And Calderon has moved in his first three months in
office to strengthen cooperation with the United States in narcotics
enforcement.

"The administration really wants Calderon to succeed," said Pamela
Starr, a Mexico analyst with the Eurasia Group risk-analysis firm in
Washington.

Dealing with Colombia

En route to meeting Calderon in Mexico, Bush will make a short
layover in Colombia, where President Alvaro Uribe has become
embroiled in a scandal linking senior members of his government with
right-wing militias that finance themselves in part through the
cocaine trade. But Uribe strongly supported the Iraq war and is a
no-holds-barred anti-drug warrior. That ranks him among Washington's
closest allies in the region.

Uribe wants a new package of nearly $750 million in mostly military
aid and is pushing for a longer-term commitment of U.S. support. A
U.S.-Colombia trade agreement remains pending in the Congress.

On a two-day visit to Guatemala, Bush will meet with President Oscar
Berger, also a conservative, in what one analyst called payback for
that country's challenge last year to Chavez's failed bid for a
rotating seat on the U.N. Security Council.

Like most winter sojourns, Bush's tour may prove a pleasant respite
from the pressures at home. But analysts say that like a hastily
acquired suntan, the trip's impact, for both the White House and
Latin America, will soon fade.

"There isn't time to do anything," Fernandez de Castro said,
referring to Bush's remaining months in office. "He will be just
another president who came into office promising to pay attention to
the region who ended up not doing that."

Dudley Althaus reported from Mexico City, John Otis from Bogota,
Colombia, and Patty Reinert from Washington.