THE JURY'S STILL OUT ON WHY SURREY'S CRIME RATE HAS DROPPED DRASTICALLY

The City of Surrey certainly received some good news last week, but
despite the claims of some politicians, the exact reason for the good
news is far from clear.

At a press conference on Friday, Surrey RCMP released its crime
statistics for the first quarter of 2007, and those numbers are down
significantly from the same period last year.

The overall crime rate was down by 13 per cent, with drug crimes
leading the way (down 21 per cent), followed by property crimes (down
eight per cent) and violent crimes (down four per cent). Specific
property crimes showed a drastic reduction, including
break-and-enters (down 27 per cent) and thefts from vehicles (down 21
per cent).

Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts immediately credited the good news to the
city's Crime Reduction Strategy, which was announced to much fanfare
on Feb. 26. The strategy includes many positive elements -- in
particular, its focus on attacking the root causes of crime deserves
plaudits given that what we typically hear from governments is the
need for stiffer sentences for criminals, which don't do much to
prevent people from committing crimes in the first place.

In an effort to attack these causes, Surrey has committed to bringing
together government and community agencies -- such as police, drug
treatment counsellors, parole officers and business associations --
to fight crime, rather than expecting police to do it by themselves.

Surrey has also approved an increase in social housing and plans to
establish a community court, much like the one that should be up and
running in Vancouver by December.

These are all positive initiatives, and could help to reduce crime in
Surrey. But it's a bit much to credit the Crime Reduction Strategy
for the drop in crime announced on Friday. After all, the statistics
covered January-March of this year, yet the strategy wasn't even
announced until the end of February. It wasn't even in operation
until close to the end of the first quarter.

Further, the proposals in the strategy most likely to attack the root
causes of crime -- such as increased social housing and the community
court -- aren't in place yet, so we can't credit them with affecting
crime figures either.

Even if they had been set up, a three-month period is simply too
short to draw robust conclusions. Like everything else, crime rates
are subject to random fluctuations, so we need to look at statistics
over a much longer period of time to determine what's really happening.

In fact, we do have some longer-term evidence that Surrey is doing
some things right. In particular, property crime has dropped
substantially over the past three years, and is probably a product of
the RCMP's decision to employ crime analysts to focus on the
prolific, repeat offenders who commit most of the crime.

While that's a positive development, it's the result of an initiative
that's been around for three years, not a new one announced as part
of the Crime Reduction Strategy.

Similarly, we'll have to wait a few years to determine if the
strategy is really working. Until then, politicians would be wise to
resist crediting every drop in crime to their initiatives, as it
could well backfire if, thanks to random fluctuations, crime suddenly
rises in one quarter.