LEGALIZING AFGHAN POPPY CROP WON'T WORK, EXPERT SAYS

Illicit Drug Production Would Carry On, He Warns

OTTAWA - Many have touted it as a simple and compelling solution to
Afghanistan's chronic poppy problem: legalize the world-leading opium
trade to take it out of the hands of criminals and terrorists.

The controversial Senlis Council, the federal Liberal party, a major
Canadian foreign policy think-tank, even a former Canadian NATO
ambassador have all advocated some form of legal and controlled opium
production. Doing so, they argue, would deprive drug dealers of
massive profits while easing the pain of the world's sick and putting
money into the pockets of poor Afghan farmers.

As far as William A. Byrd is concerned, that's all just one big pipe dream.

"In terms of turning from illicit to licit production, it just seems
like a non-starter," said Byrd, who until recently was the World
Bank's senior economic adviser in Kabul. "It is not feasible for the
foreseeable future."

Byrd developed the World Bank's reconstruction strategy for
Afghanistan following the ouster of its Taliban rulers in late 2001.

Byrd, who has a doctorate in economics from Harvard, has since become
the bank's senior advisor on poverty reduction in Washington. He took
part in a panel discussion in Ottawa Thursday on the economics of the
Afghanistan narcotics industry.

In a succinct presentation, aided by a few slides, Byrd
systematically and dispassionately attempted to debunk the
legalization argument.

Byrd said India is already licensed to legally manufacture opium, but
it still suffers from a 30-per-cent "leakage" of the drug into the
illicit criminal trade. And that comes in functioning, stable
democracy, he added.

"What kind of leakage rate would you see in Afghanistan? It's just
unimaginable. I'm just trying to point out the practical difficulties
in a country where you don't even have basic rule of law established," he said.

"How on earth are you going to . . . license production without
enormous leakages?"

Afghanistan is the biggest producer of illicit opium in the world,
but it still uses less than 10 per cent of its fertile land, Byrd noted.

"You could have a full-scale licensed production and you'll have just
as much unlicensed illicit drugs."

Earlier this week, the United Nation's Office of Drugs and Crime
reported that Afghanistan's illicit poppy crop has increased by 59
per cent, and is now the source of 92 per cent of the world's heroin.