CONSERVATIVES STAND TO BENEFIT FROM OUTBREAK OF GANG MAYHEM

Vancouver's gang problem, having reached crisis proportions, could be
the Harper government's ticket to ride in the Lower Mainland.
Conservatives have acknowledged that they've had only mixed success
in finding a way to British Columbians' hearts.

Conservative backroomer and long-time Stephen Harper helpmate Tom
Flanagan expressed frustration in his latest book, Harper's Team:
Behind the Scenes in the Conservative Rise to Power.

"What works well in one region of B.C. will not necessarily work in
another," the Calgary political scientist wrote. "We may have to get
more, and more highly placed, strategists from B.C. to help us run a
more effective provincial campaign."

In the 2006 vote, Conservatives won 17 of B.C.'s 36 seats -- down
from 22 seats in the 2004 federal election.

The party has not one but two formidable adversaries in the province,
the NDP and Liberals, and could use a galvanizing issue to attract adherents.

With three gang-related murders taking place on Vancouver's west side
this week, including a Tuesday double murder of two men in South
Vancouver, Conservatives -- advertising themselves as the anti-crime
party -- stand to benefit politically from what looks like a gathering storm.

Sure enough, by Wednesday, Public Security Minister Stockwell Day was
giving radio interviews, and Harper was speaking about attacking
crime at a Board of Trade speech. They know that Vancouverites have had it.

Earlier in the week, a man was shot and killed outside his
Shaughnessy home. On Monday, in broad daylight, two SUVs engaged in
gunfire on the Lougheed Highway, in what an RCMP said was a targeted
hit. What if those bullets had hit a passing car?

Several weeks ago six men were murdered in a Surrey highrise, among
them two uninvolved bystanders who were in the wrong place at the
wrong time. Chris Mohan, a 22-year-old from Surrey, and Edward
Schellenberg, 55, from Abbotsford, wound up at the morgue.

And who can forget a September shooting at the Quattro restaurant in
trendy Kits where masked gunmen opened fire?

More than half of B.C.'s ridings are in the Lower Mainland and
environs, the perceived locus of the gang problem.

It appears gang violence, probably linked to the illegal drug trade,
is out of control. And there's a sense the problem has gone beyond
Indo-Canadian or Chinese gang members killing their own nefarious associates.

Vancouverites can't be blamed for thinking about being hit by an
errant bullet, perhaps fired from a car or through a window. And the
idea of becoming collateral damage in your own neighbourhood is pretty potent.

Vancouver is also preparing to host the Olympics and cannot afford
this kind of notoriety.

More than 125 crime gangs are believed to be operating in B.C.
Between 1996 and 2005, the average homicide rate per 100,000 British
Columbians was 2.57 -- well above the 1.88 national average.

B.C.'s rate in fact was higher than that of all other provinces,
except Saskatchewan and Manitoba. And Vancouver experienced a higher
rate of homicides involving a firearm than either Montreal or Toronto.

Conservatives, despite their opposition to a national gun registry,
have portrayed themselves as the party of law and order.

The party's website asserts: "Under the Liberals, little was done to
address concerns about the increasing threat of gun, gang and drug
crime in our neighbourhoods. Conservatives have taken action to get
tough on criminals and make our streets safer."

Specifically, the Harper government has acted to:

- - Crack down on money laundering by organized crime.

- - Earmark $64 million for a "National Anti-Drug Strategy."

- - Announce the hiring of 1,000 new RCMP officers as well money to
help municipalities hire 2,500 more police.

- - Introduce legislation to limit house arrest so that those
committing violent crime would be forced to serve jail time; to
require mandatory minimum sentences for gun crimes, and tougher
sentencing for violent repeat offenders; to establish a reverse-onus
principle in bail hearings for firearm-related offences.

If any party is going to gain from the mayhem on Vancouver streets,
it's Harper's. And, as it turns out, the PM's anti-crime posture is
likely to help in the very ridings where Conservatives need it most
- -- urban ones where anxiety over stray bullets is greatest.