BLOODSHED MAY RISE IN MEXICO

After Record Year Of Killings, Cartels May Have Violent Answer To
Plan For $500 Million In U.S. Anti-Drug Aid

WASHINGTON - Mexico recorded its deadliest year yet of drug-related
killings in 2007, and the violence is expected to increase if an
initial $500 million U.S. aid package to Mexico is approved by
Congress in 2008, U.S. and Mexican officials and analysts say.
Drug-related killings surpassed 2,500 in 2007, eclipsing 2006's
figure of more than 2,100, according to the Austin-based Stratfor
consulting firm. The killings underscore the timing of the Merida
Initiative, an anti-drug agreement forged by Presidents Bush and
Felipe Calderon and representing a new strategy of "shared
responsibility," U.S. and Mexican officials said in interviews. Much
of the aid would be used for helicopters, technology and information
sharing. But U.S. law enforcement officials and analysts caution that
even with the unprecedented level of anti-drug aid to Mexico,
violence could actually rise as drug cartels respond forcefully to
increased U.S. and Mexican pressure. One U.S. law enforcement
official, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned that 2008 "may
prove to be even deadlier.

We expect drug traffickers to respond aggressively to combined U.S.
and Mexican actions and pressure." Growing U.S.-Mexico cooperation
will force "drug cartels to increase the political ante by increasing
the level of violence," said Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, a political
consultant with Washington-based Peschard-Sverdrup & Associates.
Especially vulnerable are Mexican law enforcement agents, said U.S.
and Mexican officials.

Over the weekend, gunmen ambushed a convoy transporting three alleged
kidnappers and killed seven police officers near Zacatecas. Hours
earlier, a top law enforcement official was killed in the state of
Tamaulipas, which borders Texas. "When pressure on them [drug
traffickers] increases or continues from law enforcement officials,
the usual response is to kick up the violence, especially directed at
government and law enforcement officials, which might explain why
deaths of law enforcement officials are up," said a senior U.S.
official, also speaking on condition of anonymity. "Per the longer
term, you certainly expect violence to decrease as the power of the
cartels is broken, but not necessarily in the short term." Cocaine
seizures Mexican authorities have made record cocaine seizures in
recent months, including hauls of 10 tons and 26 tons in October
alone. A strong government represents a threat to the cartels. "The
goal of the cartels is to weaken institutions [and] to go about their
illegal activities," said Roberta Jacobson, deputy assistant
secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs. "Therefore, our
goal is to strengthen these institutions." She added: "Through this
request by the Mexican government and cooperation of the U.S.
government, we will be able to work together in such a way that
criminals can't exploit our differences. This is an initiative of
shared responsibility for shared problems." The Merida Initiative
calls for $1.4 billion in U.S. assistance over three years, mostly in
new equipment and services to fortify democratic institutions, with
$500 million for Mexico and an additional $50 million for Central
American countries in fiscal 2008. The aid package needs
congressional approval in both countries. Mexican Ambassador Arturo
Sarukhan said the enhanced U.S. role is key. "Between Texas and
Arizona alone, you've got 12,000 gun shops along that border with
Mexico. And a lot of these gun shops provide weapons that feed into
organized crime in Mexico, so we really need the support of the
Unites States," he said. The cartels are also attacking new targets:
the armed forces, mainstream musicians - including three killed in
December - and even the Catholic Church. In mid-December, two masked
men burst into the offices of the Saltillo diocese in Coahuila state,
northern Mexico, destroying property and holding a female employee,
according to news reports.

The attack came after Bishop Raul Vera denounced the government's
efforts against drug traffickers as a farce. Soldiers slain As the
year ended, three soldiers were shot to death in a shopping mall in
the northern city of Torreon, Coahuila. That state also borders
Texas. Three journalists were killed in 2007, down from nine in 2006,
when Mexico was the most dangerous place in the Americas for
journalists, according to the New York-based Committee to Protect
Journalists. The debate in Congress might mirror the intensity of the
immigration debate last summer. "Mexico won't get a free pass," one
Republican congressional aide said. "Expect the knives to come out
for this one." A proposed U.S. trip by Mr. Calderon in early 2008 to
cities with large immigrant populations may inflame anti-Mexico
sentiment on cable television and in Congress, said U.S. Rep.
Silvestre Reyes, D-El Paso, chairman of the House Intelligence
Committee. "If I had my druthers, I would tell him to wait until this
thing is over," said Mr. Reyes. "A visit by President Calderon could
hurt our effort." Intense lobbying A final vote is expected in late
February or early spring.

Intense lobbying is under way, an effort that includes Mr. Sarukhan
making about 15 visits a week to House and Senate leaders. "I believe
that the chances of passing it are quite good," he said. Such
lobbying is uncharacteristic for a nation with a historic fear of
undermining its sovereignty by accepting U.S. aid. "This package goes
against the golden rule of Mexican diplomacy: no handouts from the
U.S. government," said Rafael Fernandez de Castro, a Mexican
political analyst and visiting professor at Harvard University. "In
Mexico, there's always the fear that the U.S. Congress will find a
way to meddle into Mexican affairs and in its sovereignty. But this
is basically the last call for Mexico. The choices are limited."
While the proposed aid would be a big increase from the $40 million a
year received in the past, it is also a fraction of the billions of
dollars Mexico spends every year on law enforcement, much of it in
the drug fight. Symbolic shift But the Merida Initiative is as much
about a symbolic shift toward co-responsibility in the drug war as it
is about money, officials and analysts said. "President Calderon is
leading a frontal attack on crime, and ... the results are very
striking in one year in Mexico," said Ms. Jacobson of the State
Department. "This is for us one of those situations where it doesn't
matter what the domestic political situation may be in the U.S., the
opportunity cannot be lost. It's simply an opportunity that won't
present itself again to change the relationship." Still, Arturo
Yanez, who trains detectives for the Mexico City government and has
worked in federal law enforcement, questioned whether Mr. Calderon's
counter-narcotics strategy is really working. "Where are the results,
the numbers ... ? Information is thin," he said. The influence of
organized crime "is growing across Mexico. How exactly are we winning?"

Alfredo Corchado reported from Washington and Mexico City, Tim
Connolly reported from Washington, and staff writer Laurence Iliff
contributed from Mexico City.

WHAT'S INCLUDED The Merida initiative calls for providing Mexico with
$1.4 billion in equipment and programs to counter the power of drug
cartels, including:

Eight transport helicopters. Two surveillance aircraft. Night vision
scanners. Secure communications equipment. Forensics, polygraph and
human rights training. Programs promoting judicial reform.