EITHER ANTI-CRIME MEASURE WILL COST OVER $1 BILLION, STATE SAYS

Both Measures for First-Time Drug and Property Offenders Would Mean
Cuts or Tax Hikes

An initiative on the November ballot to lock up first-time drug and
property crime offenders would cost taxpayers $1.3 billion to $2.2
billion over the next decade, according to projections released by
state officials.

A competing anti-crime measure sponsored by legislators would cost
about $1.1 billion over the same period.

Neither crime measure includes a tax increase to pay for housing
additional inmates, and it would be up to the Legislature to raise
taxes or cut other programs to foot the bill.

Kevin Mannix, a Republican who waged two unsuccessful campaigns for
governor, is pushing Measure 61, the harsher of the two ballot
measures. He called the state's numbers "a fantasy" that overestimates
how many people will end up behind bars.

Still, he predicted that Oregon voters would not be put off by the
steep price tag.

"The ordinary voter is going to say, 'OK, do I want someone breaking
into my car or stealing my car or stealing my identity? No, I don't,
and I want government to put these predators behind bars and pull them
off the streets,'" he said.

Mannix's proposal would set three-year mandatory minimum prison
sentences for first-time drug dealers, burglars and identity thieves,
increasing Oregon's prison population by an estimated 4,000 to 6,000
inmates.

The state analysis shows Oregon would need to spend $8 million to $10
million on it in the first year, ramping up to as much as $274 million
a year by the fifth year. The measure also would require the state to
borrow $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion to build new prisons.

Measure 57, which legislators put on the ballot as an alternative to
Mannix's proposal, is cheaper at $1.1 billion but still requires the
state to spend more than $143 million a year when fully
operational.

Under the lawmakers' proposal, repeat offenders would bear the
sentencing brunt and more money would go toward drug treatment. But
the measure would require $314 million for new prison space for an
estimated 1,600 offenders.

In February, when legislators approved their crime measure for the
ballot, they estimated it would cost $70 million a year, far less than
what the state now projects. State Sen. Floyd Prozanski, D-Eugene,
said Thursday that the earlier estimates relied on Department of
Corrections figures.

"I'm very pleased with what we have," Prozanski said. "We're
strategically addressing the issue by focusing on the repeat offender."

Scott Moore, spokesman for the political group Defend Oregon, which is
backed by unions and businesses, said the legislative proposal is
cheaper and more effective in fighting crime than the Mannix proposal.

"It's going to be costly to require drug treatment, no doubt about it,
but it's a smarter return on the state's investment than building a
lot more prisons and prison beds to hold these people," Moore said.

The projections were made by a five-person committee that included the
secretary of state and state treasurer. The group held public hearings
before drafting fiscal statements on one legislative measure and eight
citizen initiatives that qualified for the ballot. Their analysis will
be included in the Voters' Pamphlet.

All but one of the citizen initiatives are sponsored by conservative
activists Bill Sizemore and Mannix. None address how taxpayers would
pay for the mandates.

If approved, the Sizemore-sponsored measures would cost taxpayers at
least $230 million a year and cut more than $1 billion a year from
state coffers.

"I didn't do the math of adding up all these if they pass, but it's an
enormous price tag," said state Treasurer Randall Edwards, a Democrat.
"In the end, I do think voters really do discern, 'Can we afford this?'"

Steve Doell, president of Crime Victims United of Oregon, said his
group hasn't weighed in on the competing crime measures yet.

But he said Oregonians have a serious problem with property crimes,
and he warned voters against putting too much faith in numbers that
far out.

"If you talk to any good corporation, nobody in their right mind will
ever try to tell you a 10-year projection," he said.

If voters approve both crime measures, the one that gets the most
votes becomes law.