MEXICAN PRESIDENT LOSING WAR ON DRUGS, POLLS INDICATE

MEXICO CITY - President Felipe Calderon is losing the fight against
drug traffickers on the field of public opinion, two polls this week
show, as he faces calls to change tactics and the possible collapse
of an anti-drug package with the U.S.

The surveys show that most Mexicans still support Mr. Calderon's
actions in taking on the narcos. His approval rating remains high, at
just over 60 percent.

But by a 2-to-1 margin, Mexicans believe that the powerful and
well-armed drug cartels are outgunning the government even as the
army takes a high-profile and unprecedented role.

One of the regions particularly hard hit by the narcos' turf war -
with police and soldiers stuck in the crossfire - has been Ciudad Juarez.

Analysts generally supportive of Mr. Calderon's courage in taking on
the cartels and their paramilitary enforcers say it's tough to
swallow the government's victorious message amid greater violence,
including more beheadings.

Public opinion is critical to Mr. Calderon's strategy for the war
since he has made it a cornerstone of his 18-month presidency - and
because he is asking for sacrifice from the Mexican people,
especially families of the more than 450 police killed over that
period, analysts said.

One apparent casualty of Mexican public opinion is a proposed $1.4
billion U.S. aid package known as the Merida Initiative. The U.S.
Congress both reduced funding for the first year and then added human
rights conditions that made it unacceptable to its southern neighbor.

Mexico has threatened to turn down the first year of the program if
the final version contains the human rights edicts.

"Public opinion always matters," said political columnist Juan Jose
Huerta, who gives Mr. Calderon high marks for disrupting drug cartel
operations and having a long-term strategy to chip away at their operations.

But the reality on the ground is jarring, he said.

"The wave of attacks against police has been so overwhelming in the
last weeks," he said, "that people are in shock."

Mr. Huerta said the government should change its message and protect
the police better.

"You have to say it's a frontal assault without saying it necessarily
implies the death of government forces," he said. "That is the wrong emphasis."

Cartel War Like Iraq?

As the number of drug-related deaths during Mr. Calderon's
administration has passed 4,000, war fatigue has started to set in,
say the drug war's toughest critics, who compare it to the slow but
steady erosion of support for the Iraq war among Americans.

Nightly media images of poorly trained police getting mowed down has
not helped, analysts said.

In one incident late last month in Culiacan, Sinaloa, an anonymous
caller reported armed men in an area known for drug activity.

About 20 federal police rushed to the scene only to be ambushed with
fragmentation grenades and gunmen shooting from all directions.

Eight federal police officers died, the most in a single day. And
news reports played up the fact that they appeared to have been
outsmarted and outgunned by a much smaller group of narcos, only one
of whom died in the shootout.

"The Mexican war is not so different from the Iraqi one," wrote
columnist Jesus Silva-Herzog Marquez. "Both interventions served the
presidents to show determination and courage to face a fearsome
enemy. . But beyond the determination shown by president Calderon at
the beginning of his term, it's not clear what he's seeking nor how
he can evaluate the effect of his policies."

This week's surveys were published in two influential Mexico City
newspapers, Reforma and El Universal.

El Universal said 56 percent of respondents in the national poll gave
the upper hand to the cartels compared with 23 percent for the government.

The Reforma poll has almost identical numbers and something more
ominous: eroding support for how Mr. Calderon is handling the fight.

Forty-two percent of respondents had a "favorable" opinion of Mr.
Calderon's performance - the lowest percentage since the tracking
poll began in September 2007 - and nine percentage points lower than in March.

Legalization Backed

About 36 percent disapproved of his handling of the drug war, up from
31 percent in March. The poll had a margin of error of plus-or-minus
2.5 percentage points.

El Universal also had an interesting nugget that Mr. Huerta said may
have to be explored over the long term - majority support for the
legalization or decriminalization of some drugs in an attempt to
weaken cartels.

At the epicenter of the drug fight - Culiacan - Margarito Ayala
Baron, 54, had a message for Mr. Calderon: "I admire your guts, but
get a new team."

He runs an auto repair shop and said most of his clients have ties to
the cartels.

With the police and military crackdown in the capital of Sinaloa
state, the home base of the Sinaloa cartel, Mr. Ayala Baron figures
he's lost more than 30 percent of his business. But he's not complaining.

"I would rather lose some of my business than lose my country," he
said. "But I don't know that the president has the support of his own
people. He doesn't have anyone backing him up because corruption is endemic."

Alfredo Quijano, editor of the Norte newspaper in Ciudad Juarez, said
the perception that the cartels are better prepared than the police
is accurate.

"The police are practically nonexistent because they're so afraid
they will be next. They don't even bother to use their radios anymore
because they fear the radios are tapped. The government looks overwhelmed."

U.S. officials say they understand the concerns of Mexicans concerned
that organized crime is actually winning the war.

"We shouldn't fool ourselves," said White House drug czar John
Walters. "Their goal is not only to destroy rule of law in Mexico. If
you live along the border, you should know their goal is to destroy
rule of law in the United States."