INITIATIVES COULD BOOST INCARCERATIONS IN STATE

Oregon was among the states in the 1990s that led the way toward
mandatory minimum prison terms for violent criminals.

But unless voters reject both pending ballot measures in the fall,
Oregon will not be among the states lessening penalties on drug
dealers, burglars and other property offenders.

A ballot initiative sponsored by Kevin Mannix of Salem and approved
by voters as Measure 11 in 1994 imposed minimum sentences on people
convicted of 16 violent crimes. The number of affected crimes has
risen to 24, three of them added by the Legislature in 2006.

Another ballot initiative, also sponsored by Mannix and submitted for
the Nov. 4 election, would impose minimum sentences on first-time
property and drug offenders. Mannix already has submitted about
150,000 signatures, 83,000 of which are required to qualify it.

The Legislature's February session responded by sending voters an
alternative that lengthens sentences for larger-volume drug dealers
and repeat property offenders. It also ties in drug treatment for
many offenders.

"We need treatment as well as incarceration," said Rep. Greg
Macpherson, D-Lake Oswego, the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.

Virtually every major law-enforcement group backed the alternative
incorporated in Senate Bill 1087, but Mannix backed away from the
negotiations and stuck to his original initiative.

"It's not like we're adding anything to the package in exchange for
reductions, just do a little less here and there," Mannix said during
the legislative session.

Measure 11, which took effect in April 1995, has led to a
near-doubling of the state prison population. The system total at the
start of February was 13,532, of which about 40 percent are housed
for Measure 11 crimes. Mannix said that those figures are still below
projections made in the 1990s.

The Oregon Youth Authority is holding 169 people on Measure 11
crimes. The law allows the agency to hold some young offenders until
age 25, when they are transferred to the state prison system.

According to the Oregon Criminal Justice Commission, Mannix's
property-crimes initiative would add 4,000 to 6,000 inmates at a cost
estimated at $256 million to $400 million more in the 2009-11 budget cycle.

The legislative alternative is not cheap, either. According to state
estimates, it would add 1,400 to 1,700 inmates to the system from
2009 to 2013. The added cost would be $62 million to the Department
of Corrections budget in 2009-11, and $106 million in 2011-13, plus
about $40 million more in each cycle for treatment of drug and
alcohol addiction.

If both measures pass Nov. 4, the one that gets more votes will take effect.