U.N. WARNS OF HUGE CROP OF AFGHAN OPIUM POPPIES

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Afghanistan will produce another enormous opium
poppy crop this year, close to last year's record harvest, and Europe
and other regions should brace themselves for the expected influx of
heroin, the United Nations warned in its annual winter survey of poppy
planting patterns.

Cultivation is still increasing in the insurgency-hit south and west
of the country, the report said, and taxes on the crop have become a
major source of revenue for the Taliban insurgency.

"This is a windfall for antigovernment forces, further evidence of the
dangerous link between opium and insurgency," Antonio Maria Costa, the
executive director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime,
wrote in the report's preface.

The report will be released by the Office on Drugs and Crime on
Wednesday at an international donors conference in Tokyo. An advance
copy was shown to The New York Times.

"Cultivation levels will be broadly similar to, perhaps slightly lower
than, last year's record harvest," Mr. Costa said. There is some
evidence that the sharp increases of recent years are leveling off,
which is encouraging, he said, but the "total amount of opium being
harvested remains shockingly high."

Afghanistan supplies 90 percent of the world's opium, the report
said.

The cultivation of cannabis, the plant that yields marijuana and
hashish, is increasing, the report added, making Afghanistan one of
the biggest suppliers of cannabis as well.

The winter survey, which the United Nations teams conduct every year
by talking to village leaders across the country, outlines trends in
poppy cultivation. It is only an estimate because half of the country
has not yet begun planting, and in the other half the plants are not
yet visible beneath the snow.

In 2007, 477,000 acres were under poppy cultivation, yielding an
estimated 9,000 tons of opium. The survey said the 2008 harvest would
depend on levels of eradication and the weather. Good rainfall and
water supply are expected to help the harvest in 2008, and no efforts
at eradication were observed by mid-January, the report said.

The survey found that poppy cultivation was increasing in six
provinces in southern and western Afghanistan. One of those provinces,
Nimruz, was showing a sharp increase. Five provinces were expected to
show no change, including Helmand, which produced 53 percent of
Afghanistan's opium last year, and where Taliban insurgents control
much of the countryside.

Ten provinces are expected to show a decrease in cultivation, and 12
are likely to remain poppy free. These figures will depend on how
effectively the Afghan authorities wage prevention and eradication
campaigns, the report said. Nangarhar Province is expected to show a
sharp drop because of agreements made with district leaders, it said.

The Afghan government has opposed an aerial herbicide spraying
program, advocated by the White House, fearing a potential backlash if
people and food crops are harmed. However, a ground spraying program
was being considered.

There is some evidence that agricultural assistance can persuade
farmers not to grow poppies, the report said. Of the 469 villages
visited by the United Nations teams over a month in December and
January, a third had received assistance in the form of seeds,
fertilizer and irrigation. A majority -- 67 percent -- of those that
received assistance did not grow poppies, the report said.

The United Nations also said there was a strong link between
instability and opium production. In the south and west, where
security is worst, 100 percent of studied villages that had poor
security cultivated poppies, the report said. At the same time, poppy
cultivation is decreasing in places that have good security, it said.

Most poppy farmers in the south and west of the country said they paid
a tax to mullahs, the Taliban, or local officials, the report said.