OPIUM ECONOMY WILL TAKE 20 YEARS AND UKP1BN TO REMOVE

Europe And Other Major Heroin Markets Should Brace Themselves For
Health Consequences Of Harvest, Warns UN

Afghanistan's opium economy will take up to 20 years to eradicate and
require a UKP1bn investment from world leaders, according to a
government study published yesterday. The 102-page report was
welcomed by the international development secretary, Douglas
Alexander, even though it contains some highly critical messages
about the effectiveness of some of the aid programmes.

Compiled by the Department of International Development and the World
Bank, the analysis suggests at least an extra UKP1bn needs to be
invested in irrigation, roads, alternative crops and rural
development to attract farmers away from the lucrative and growing
opium industry.

Its conclusions came as the UN produced fresh figures on the opium
trade. The UN's Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) believes this
year's crop will be similar to, or slightly lower than, last year's
record harvest.

In 2007 Afghanistan had more land growing drugs than Colombia,
Bolivia and Peru combined.

"While it is encouraging that the dramatic increases of the past few
years seem to be levelling off, the total amount of opium being
harvested remains shockingly high," said UNODC chief, Antonio Maria
Costa, in a statement.

"Europe and other major heroin markets should brace themselves for
the health and security consequences," he said.

"Much is already happening and very large investments are being
made," the report says.

"But these have been fragmented and not within a programatic approach
and not with a counter narcotic lens. To achieve results will require
consistent approaches, considerable time, persistence in the face of
short term setbacks and massive co-ordinated sustained investment, as
well as political vision and stamina."

Highlighting the lack of coordination in the current aid effort, the
report warns: "The result of weak Afghan leadership and poor donor
adherence ... will be some very messy and ill co-ordinated
development activities.

"In rural livelihood programmes for example some donors have agreed
to consultations, but nevertheless finance programmes outside the
budget with scant reference either to the government or agencies."

It says less than a quarter of the total aid to Afghanistan currently
goes through the Afghan national budget, and also criticises the
military forces in Afghanistan for not sourcing goods and products
from within Afghanistan.

"The economic growth needed to displace the opium economy and the
development of the necessary infrastructure and governance to support
it will take at least one or two decades".

Providing security is an essential component of the counter narcotics
effort, but the study says the provincial reconstruction teams set up
by Nato forces "by and large have not been successful in ensuring a
safer environment for development programmes".

The teams should provide a credible bridge between security
activities and their development agenda, and a conducive environment
in which the latter can be pursued.

However, the study warns: "It is not clear the PRTs [provincial
reconstruction teams] have been able to provide this safe environment
for development programmes.

"Moreover foreign military personnel rotate fast which reduces the
consistency of policies in PRTs and leads to a disconcerting tendency
to 'always try something new'."

It adds that "once a vicious circle sets in development options
greatly shrink. Security has deteriorated since 2005. This has two
big effects. First donor contributions get eroded as more is spent on
security and less on delivery, and second there is a slow down in
project delivery."

It argues that in Helmand, the province in which British troops
operate and the citadel of opium production, the Taliban insurgency
severely limits people's movements making marketing of legal
agricultural produce more difficult and dangerous.

In areas of insecurity "opium markets work well. Opium traders
provide advances, travel to the farm gate to purchase the crop and
cover the cost of transport and bribes to those manning the check
posts. They also take the physical risk of travel in secure areas."

The report says: "This creates a near impossible policy challenge
trying to establish governance and sustainable development in
conditions where there is a fight against insurgents and a political
necessity to 'do something' about poppy."

In Helmand once security increases, the report suggest the province
could become the home of cotton production. Other new products are
raisins, melons, cumin as well as livestock farming.

The report recommends investments of $550m (UKP275m) to boost rural
enterprise development, and $400m for rural road planning,
construction and maintenance.

Overall, Afghan farmers need start-up assistance, matching investment
grants, cost sharing market development and a commitment to deliver
through community development councils with the aid itself seen as
coming from the Afghan government, and not the true donor.

The number of poppy-free provinces is expected to rise from 12 in
2007, to 14 or 15, mostly in the north and east, out of a total of 34
Afghan provinces, the UNODC said.

But opium production continues to grow "at an alarming rate" in the
south and west, it said. All the poppy farmers surveyed in southern
Afghanistan said they paid a tax of 10% of their opium income to the
Taliban or corrupt government officials.