SCALE OF HEROIN TRADE INDICATED BY SEIZURES

In the last 10 days there has been a glimpse of the scale of the heroin
trade in Dublin. Twenty two kilograms of heroin hidden in the door panels
of three cars, and almost four kilos packed into a single rucksack, are in
the hands of the Garda National Drug Unit, rather than those of the criminals.

Both hauls were believed to be destined for west Dublin, where dealers
would have cut the drug, adding soluble powder - probably fructose or
lactose - to bulk it out.

Then the brown mixture would have been bagged into between 400,000 and
750,000 street deals, depending on the purity.

Neither gardai nor community workers believe that Dublin's heroin supply
will dry up as a result of the seizures. There has been no immediate effect
on the price of a street deal throughout the city, which has been stable at
IEP20 for the last two years. It is possible that a stockpile of heroin has
prevented a shortage, but more likely that other dealers have stepped in by
shipping smaller consignments to mop up the customers.

In the last year the price has dipped as low as IEP10 a deal for poorer
quality heroin, usually sold to first-time users who are smoking rather
than injecting the drug. But the IEP20 note is still the most common note
in a drug dealer's stash of proceeds.

No one knows how much heroin Dublin's addicts consume because no one knows
how many addicts there are.

The worst-case scenario of 10,000 addicts - a figure disputed by some
experts - would mean the two recent seizures represent about a month's
supply, as most addicts would use between three and four deals a day.

The 1996 figures, the latest available from the Health Research Board,
showed there were almost 4,000 drug addicts presenting for treatment in the
Eastern Health Board Area.

New regulations in place since October 1st should mean that every addict
being prescribed methadone is now registered. So far 3,290 addicts have
registered under the new regulations.

Many people familiar with the drugs trade were surprised by the size of the
two consignments seized in the past nine days - 22kg found in three cars
which arrived on ferries from Britain to Dublin and Dun Laoghaire on
Saturday, October 31st, and almost 4kg contained in a rucksack carried by a
man in central Dublin last Thursday.

Unlike cannabis, which is shipped in bulk, heroin is associated with
small-consignment runs by couriers, usually addicts themselves who are paid
to carry the drugs, often internally.

In the whole of last year gardai seized just 8.2kg of heroin, a third of
the total seized in the two recent hauls. Garda Drug Squad officers believe
that if 20kg shipments were a weekly event the price of heroin would have
dropped through the floor.

"What has happened in the past with large seizures is that whatever
organisation is bringing in the drugs would tend to close down, at least
temporarily, so they can tighten up the operation," a senior Garda source
said.

Dublin's heroin is shipped through Manchester, London, and to a lesser
extent Liverpool. "That was illustrated last year when a number of large
seizures in London and the arrest of some Turks led to a number of
shortages in Dublin, indicating to some extent how the business rests on a
small number of people in London."

The impact of a large seizure is not catastrophic for a drugs gang if those
arrested with the drugs are simply couriers.

While the "street" value is in the millions of pounds, the drugs may have
cost the gang less than a tenth of that, and a seizure is a debt that has
to be paid for from the profits of previous shipments.

Catching the main drug dealer with a smaller amount, two or three ounces,
can have a more devastating effect. Couriers are dispensable and the most
powerful drug dealers avoid contact with the source of their profits.

Things have improved in some of the worst heroin blackspots in the south
inner city, with an increased Garda presence in the last six weeks.

The chairman of Rialto Network, Mr Tony Mac Carthaigh, believes the
policing is having an effect in Fatima Mansions, dubbed a heroin
supermarket by its residents earlier this year. "There has been an improved
police presence in the last five to six weeks with uniform gardai on the
beat, wearing the yellow jackets, which makes them even more visible. My
own feedback is that things have quietened down considerably. And long may
it continue." Drug-dealing that was carried out openly, now goes on "under
cover of darkness".

In Inchicore, St Michael's Estate has also seen a large increase in gardai.

One resident says that six officers patrol the estate regularly. However,
the layout of the complex makes it impossible to police every corner and
dealers block the lifts when they are collecting money.

According to a northside Garda drugs source, "realistically most of the
dealers are people who are dealing for a local market. You have a guy
taking the Ryanair flight over to Manchester or London with a girl and they
bring back an ounce or two. It's handy enough."

When things get quiet it usually has to do with the presence of Garda
uniforms in an area, rather than a shortage of heroin. They call it the
"waterbed effect". Sit on the problem in one area or at one time, and it
moves into another.

Office workers in the city centre have noticed in the last month that a
derelict building owned by a private developer off the quays is apparently
being used for the first time as a centre for drug-dealing.

Checked-by: Mike Gogulski