MEXICO FIRST ... CONTINUING CLINTON'S POLICIES ... A NEW CUBA LOBBY

Mexico First

President Bush's first international trip for a meeting with his Mexican
counterpart, Vicente Fox, will be a very important symbolic gesture for
Mexico and Latin America. Many analysts hope will be the first step toward
a more committed and innovative U.S. policy toward the region.

Bush's affinity with Fox and interest in Mexico as governor of Texas
brought expectations of an early meeting between the two leaders. Analysts
praised the symbolism of the Feb. 16 meeting and noted that the two leaders
will meet at Fox's ranch in Guanajuato state instead of a traditional, but
impersonal border meeting site.

"The fact that it will be Bush's first international trip sends a strong
signal about the priority that the relationship between the two countries
will have," said Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, director of the Mexico Project
at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "I
think the stress on having the meeting at the ranch, and not a more
official place, underlines the friendliness of the relationship."

Peschard-Sverdrup agreed with other analysts that it will be a
get-acquainted meeting without major announcements about such sensitive
topics as immigration and drug trafficking. The White House has said only
that it will be an opportunity to begin strengthening ties and "expanding
areas of cooperation" between the two countries.

Bush is expected to be accompanied by a delegation from Congress where some
U.S.-Mexican issues are being considered. Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Tex.) intends
to begin discussions with his colleagues this week about a guest worker
program that would give Mexicans permission to work in the United States
for one year in service and agriculture jobs as well as other fields. The
program would also establish special accounts for the workers' health costs
and increase fines for employers of illegal immigrants.

Senators Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Tex.)
have expressed interest in supporting suspension of the process of
certifying Mexico's cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking, at
least for one year.

"My understanding is that there is a momentum very early in this Congress
to approve a one-year moratorium while we give Vicente Fox a chance to
clean up corruption,' said Rob Allyn, an American who worked for Fox's
campaign.

Congressional defenders of the certification process say it can stimulate
concrete results in the anti-drug fight. Although some Republican sources
acknowledge that certification has lost effectiveness because of political
influence, the fight to eliminate it will be difficult.

Continuity in Latin America Policy

Republican Latin America specialists in Washington say the Bush
administration's approach to the region might merely continue Clinton
administration policies--with better management. They fear that beyond the
friendly Bush-Fox relationship, which could develop into a once-a-year
meeting, the new U.S. government will not explore new options and policies.

Supporting this conclusion are the appointment of veteran career diplomat
John Maisto to handle inter-American affairs at the National Security
Council and the possible naming of other career diplomats as assistant
secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs and ambassador to the
Organization of American States.

"If you have a career person at NSC and State, the signals out of the
administration are continuity and emphasis on process," said Dan Fisk of
the Heritage Foundation. "In that sense, I would not expect any dramatic
change from the Clinton administration agenda."

Regarding Colombia, the Latin American country that, after Mexico, would
require the greatest attention of the Bush government, there are
indications that the current policy will continue. In his confirmation
hearing Colin L. Powell, now secretary of state, said he supports the $1.3
billion dollar aid package for Plan Colombia, that country's strategy for
fighting the drug trade and promoting democracy and economic development.
Powell also supported the idea of developing a regional strategy around
Colombia, which the Clinton administration had promoted with little success.

Various analysts suggested that with Robert Zoellick as the United States
trade representative, trade policy would drive the administration's Latin
America agenda. They said the bilateral agreement with Chile, inherited
from the Clinton administration, could stimulate negotiations for the
formation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) by 2005.

"You have to prioritize; trade is not a panacea, but it certainly is an
essential building block," said George Folsom, an international political
economist who follows Latin America closely and who also worked on the Bush
campaign.

Folsom said decisions will be made soon in Washington that will have a
direct and important effect on the region, although they are not aimed
exclusively at Latin America. He was referring to the anticipated Jan. 30
or 31 Federal Reserve Board decision to lower rates by another quarter
point and the proposed tax cut which should spur consumption and make the
U.S. market more attractive for Latin American exports. Countries like
Argentina, Ecuador and El Salvador, whose monetary policy is pegged to the
dollar, should see immediate results.

"The FTAA is undeniably an important goal for Latin America and the United
States, but in terms of policies that can affect economic conditions this
year, we should focus on the combined effect of further reductions in the
Fed funds interests rate, and Bush's across the board reduction of marginal
tax rates, particularly if Congress makes them retroactive," Folsom said.

A New Cuba Lobby

A signal of continuity in Latin America policy is not the kind of welcome
that a new group in Washington had hoped for. The group, whose goal is to
promote "more constructive" bilateral relations between Cuba and the United
States, will work for more trade and the lifting of restrictions on travel
to the island.

"We believe that a change in U.S. foreign policy toward that end is in the
best interest of America itself," said Steven Goldstein, a consultant
contracted to form the group. "The United States is losing billions of
dollars because of an embargo against Cuba that has failed for 40 years to
produce the change it was supposed to produce."

Goldstein said the group has received funding from the Fund for
Constitutional Government, a non-profit organization based in Washington.
He said he intends to create a group that, unlike others that support
normalization of relations with Cuba, will be bipartisan and reflect the
current situation in Washington, where "the majority of members of both
houses of Congress favor a change."

The group, which will begin its activities within the next few weeks, will
be called Cuba Policy Foundation, a name that contrasts with the well-known
Cuban American National Foundation.