COLOMBIA'S DRUG WAR

Pastrana's Weakness Jeopardizes 'Plan Colombia'

BOGOTA - A joke making the rounds has Colombian President Andres Pastrana
going into a bank to cash a check without ID and being asked to do
something to prove who he is. He just shrugs and says: "I can't think of
anything." The cashier pays him instantly.

The gibe reflects the belief of many ordinary Colombians that Pastrana, who
took office in August 1998 after a record voter turnout, has essentially
run out of ideas on how to deliver on his centerpiece pledge to negotiate a
peaceful end to the country's 36-year-old, drug-fueled guerrilla war. His
popularity has slumped to just 21 percent, and roughly three quarters of
Colombians have lost faith in slowmoving peace talks with Revolutionary
Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas, according to a recent Gallup Poll.

Drugs and money. But it is no laughing matter for Washington. With Colombia
earmarked for $1.3 billion in mostly military aid, the United States has
become the chief paymaster for an unpopular president and his controversial
"Plan Colombia," designed to attack the booming drug production-a key
pillar of rebel financing-and force the FARC to end its insurgency.
European nations have reacted coolly to pleas for funds for social
spending, so far pledging only $245 million. "Pastrana seems to be a lame
duck now. If the peace process continues as it is doing, then it's dead,"
said Rodrigo Pardo, a former foreign minister. "Plan Colombia in its widest
sense is only in the president's head. It is really only now the
contribution of the United States."

In a tough-talking televised speech last week, Pastrana called on veteran
FARC chieftain Manuel "Sureshot" Marulanda to quit stalling. "Let's decide
once and for all if we're going to continue the peace process that we
started," Pastrana said. The two are expected to meet Thursday, though
prospects for a breakthrough are slim. In the past two years, peace talks
have failed to secure agreement on a single item on a 12-point negotiating
agenda. With a 17,000-strong force of well-armed fighters and income of
around $600 million a year from the drug trade, kidnapping, and extortion,
the rebels are in no rush to cut any deals. Said Gen. Fred Woerner, former
commander of the U.S. Army's Southern Command, "A weakened president comes
to the peace table almost encouraging intransigence on the part of the
guerrillas."

Pastrana has repeatedly said he is not unduly concerned by opinion polls.
But his threats to dissolve Congress in an anti-corruption drive in March
and a poor showing by his ruling Conservative Party in October's local
elections have sapped his power base at the national and regional levels.
And now, the newly elected governors of six central and southern
provinces-the main target of the U.S.-backed drug war-are defying central
government orders and have begun moves to negotiate their own regional
peace accords.