PASTRANA'S WEAKNESS JEOPARDIZES 'PLAN COLOMBIA'

BOGOTA -- A joke making the rounds has Colombian President Andres
Pastrana going into a bank to cash a check without ID and being asked
to do something to prove who he is. He just shrugs and says: "I can't
think of anything." The cashier pays him instantly.

The gibe reflects the belief of many ordinary Colombians that
Pastrana, who took office in August 1998 after a record voter turnout,
has essentially run out of ideas on how to deliver on his centerpiece
pledge to negotiate a peaceful end to the country's 36-year-old,
drug-fueled guerrilla war. His popularity has slumped to just 21
percent, and roughly three quarters of Colombians have lost faith in
slowmoving peace talks with Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
(FARC) guerrillas, according to a recent Gallup Poll.

Drugs and money. But it is no laughing matter for Washington. With
Colombia earmarked for $1.3 billion in mostly military aid, the United
States has become the chief paymaster for an unpopular president and
his controversial "Plan Colombia," designed to attack the booming drug
production-a key pillar of rebel financing-and force the FARC to end
its insurgency. European nations have reacted coolly to pleas for
funds for social spending, so far pledging only $245 million.
"Pastrana seems to be a lame duck now. If the peace process continues
as it is doing, then it's dead," said Rodrigo Pardo, a former foreign
minister. "Plan Colombia in its widest sense is only in the
president's head. It is really only now the contribution of the United
States."

In a tough-talking televised speech last week, Pastrana called on
veteran FARC chieftain Manuel "Sureshot" Marulanda to quit stalling.
"Let's decide once and for all if we're going to continue the peace
process that we started," Pastrana said. The two are expected to meet
Thursday, though prospects for a breakthrough are slim. In the past
two years, peace talks have failed to secure agreement on a single
item on a 12-point negotiating agenda. With a 17,000-strong force of
well-armed fighters and income of around $600 million a year from the
drug trade, kidnapping, and extortion, the rebels are in no rush to
cut any deals. Said Gen. Fred Woerner, former commander of the U.S.
Army's Southern Command, "A weakened president comes to the peace
table almost encouraging intransigence on the part of the
guerrillas."

Pastrana has repeatedly said he is not unduly concerned by opinion
polls. But his threats to dissolve Congress in an anti-corruption
drive in March and a poor showing by his ruling Conservative Party in
October's local elections have sapped his power base at the national
and regional levels. And now, the newly elected governors of six
central and southern provinces-the main target of the U.S.-backed drug
war-are defying central government orders and have begun moves to
negotiate their own regional peace accords.