CAUTIOUS U.S. HOPE ON REPORT OF LOWER AFGHAN OPIUM CROP

UNITED NATIONS, Feb. 9 -- A top narcotics expert in the United States
Drug Enforcement Administration said this week that American agencies
were receiving reports similar to those received by United Nations
agencies of a sharply reduced opium crop in Taliban-controlled areas
of Afghanistan, but he cautioned that it was too soon to confirm the
trend or to explain the cause.

United Nations narcotics officials in the region began a survey last
week that appeared to show large areas of the country taken out of
poppy cultivation. Last year, Afghanistan had the world's largest
opium poppy crop, accounting for nearly three-quarters of all
production. Opium is the base for making heroin.

In Washington, Steven Casteel, chief of intelligence for the Drug
Enforcement Administration, said in an interview that drawing the
conclusion that the ruling Taliban have definitely begun to cut back
significantly "is a bit premature."

Using electronic surveillance and informers on the ground, Mr. Casteel
said, the United States expects to have a firmer measurement of this
year's Afghan opium crop by the end of March or early April.

"From a law enforcement perspective, we're just extremely cautious
about this -- cautiously optimistic but cautious," Mr. Casteel said.
"To see a sudden turnaround in this, I am more interested almost not
in what is happening but why."

Mr. Casteel said a severe drought might be a factor in the reduction,
an explanation United Nations drug experts also mention. Whatever the
cause, a substantial drop in opium poppy production could help the
Taliban ease its diplomatic isolation.

The militant Islamic government, which controls most of the country,
has been under Security Council sanctions for not turning over to the
United States Osama bin Laden, who is believed to finance terrorism,
and has been criticized widely for its human rights record.

In the longer term, Mr. Casteel said, narcotics experts will be
looking for evidence that a sudden reduction in poppy growing in
Afghanistan could be linked to financial decisions by international
drug dealers.

"These organizations are getting more sophisticated," he said. "They
make multinational business decisions. This could be simply a price
issue." Opium, he added, can be stockpiled indefinitely and released
later for maximum profit.

"If you are making widgets, and you stockpile your widgets for a
period of time and get the price to double or treble, that's a
business decision you probably want to do," he said. "So we're seeing
the price of heroin that a few months ago -- before the Taliban's ban
on opium poppies -- was probably between $600 and $700 is now going for
as much as $2,500."

American experts agree with United Nations officials that there are
stockpiles of heroin along the northern border of Afghanistan, but
there is no clear sense of who is in charge of it.

Mr. Casteel said individuals connected to both the Taliban and their
opponents fighting for about 5 percent of the country's northeast had
been linked to drug traders.