CALM BEFORE DEADLY DRUG STORM

THE inevitable end to Victoria's heroin drought would see users
dropping like flies, police and heroin addicts warned yesterday.

``The best we can hope for is that our intelligence is good enough to
be able to warn the community before the bodies start hitting the
pavement,'' the state's top detective said.

Assistant Commissioner (Crime) George Davis said significant
disruptions to supply and a sharp fall in the purity of the little
heroin available was responsible for the recent drop in overdose
deaths.

Eight deaths have been reported in seven weeks so far this year
compared with an average of more than six a week last year. Mr Davis
said police were pleased with the falling death rate, but knew it
would not last.

He said there had been a significant reduction of heroin availability
throughout Australia in recent months.

Undercover police in Melbourne found it hard to buy an ounce of
heroin last week for $5000.

``It was very hard to find, and when we had it analysed it was only 8
per cent pure. Only three months ago heroin on the street was 60 to
70 per cent purity.

``There's next to none out there.

``But when supply comes back, as it inevitably will, people who are
pumping the 8 per cent solution into their veins and suddenly get an
80 per cent solution, will be overdosing''.

Heroin addicts in Springvale told the Herald Sun many users would not
be able to cope when supplies and purity returned to previous levels.

``They'll be dropping like flies when it comes back on,'' one said.

``A lot just won't know what's hit them.''

He said the price of heroin on the street had trebled since before Christmas.

Fights had become common among frustrated addicts, and some had begun
injecting a prescription sedative gel with low purity heroin to boost
the effect.

Mr Davis said many addicts had become multi-drug users because of the shortage.

``They're also becoming desperate for the money to buy the amount of
drugs they need to get their fix, because an 8 per cent hit is not
going to do what they need,'' he said.

``They're having three or four hits where they used to have one, and
their criminal activity to support their habit has increased.''

The most obvious result of the heroin drought has been the recent
dramatic escalation in holdups on convenience stores and other
``soft'' targets.

Mr Davis said police had ``taken out two significant supply links''
with the recent arrests of two Sydney dealers.

Eight kilograms of heroin bound for Melbourne, and several hundred
thousand dollars, was seized from one dealer.

Major offshore seizures by federal police mobile strike teams late
last year included 357kg of heroin in Fiji, 200,000 ecstasy tablets,
3000kg of cannabis and 100kg of cannabis resin in the Netherlands and
142kg of the amphetamine ``ice'' in Malaysia.

Mr Davis said although the local heroin trade was its quietest for
five years, there was a high demand for ecstasy and increasing
traffic in cocaine.

Mr Davis said he thought his Chief Commissioner's strategy to focus
on drug education, early intervention and diversion was ``right on
the knocker''.

``If we can reduce the demand, and restrict the supply, we're well on
the way to winning the game.

``If the demand is significantly reduced over the next 10 years, and
the profit is removed from it, we'll be a far better place than most
other countries,'' he said.

A former assistant commissioner in charge of the state's traffic
policing strategy, he said he did not think TAC-style scare tactics
would work with drug addicts.

``People with a drug habit often have no respect and they don't care
if they live or die, so to try and frighten them off is not the way
to go,'' he said.

``The way to go in my view is to get in early and give them the
self-respect and self-esteem that will give them the will to live
their life to the full.''

`We know prevention works if there is a long-term community support
of it. Schools need to be resourced and have the capacity to do it.
Preventive programs must be our primary focus. But the political
agenda has not focused on it' ~ Glenn Bowes, Royal Children's
Hospital general manager, Youth Substance Abuse Service chairman

`It's just so important for the fabric of Victorian youth that we get
this right, and it's got to be a long-term plan, definitely not a
term of office plan. I think it's a terrific idea. I really
encouraged Neil to go on with it and I think everybody will support
it. Everyone should give this 100 per cent, not 99' ~ Kevin Sheedy,
Essendon coach and father

`I totally endorse the Chief Commissioner's initiative. His
priorities are right. What will be important is to agree on
substantial things to cut demand. There should be massive community
support for that. The drive towards appropriate education is one
thing we could agree on' ~ Catholic Archbishop, George Pell

`This ought to bring people together. There ought to be a consensus
right across the community because this is a community-wide problem.
It's a great initiative and I'm very impressed that a person with his
hands-on knowledge of what's going on, the realities, is bringing
forward something that I would hope gets people together' ~ Anglican
Archbishop, Peter Watson

`Melbourne and Victoria is, at best, not even holding the tide much
less turning the tide. If ever there was a time for an apolitical
parliamentary approach to an issue, it's this one. The momentum, in
terms of finding better and more effective ways, has certainly
declined. I'm 100 per cent behind him' ~ Ivan Deveson former Lord
Mayor, chairman of Mary Of The Cross Centre