COAST GUARD UNLIKELY TO MEET COCAINE INTERDICTION GOALS

Forced by money woes to reduce patrols, the Coast Guard expects to fall
short of its cocaine seizure goals for next year, a disappointment that
comes as traffickers are increasingly turning to the sea to ship drugs.

"We know that on a daily basis that there are smuggling events that occur
that we just can't respond to," said Coast Guard Capt. Jeffrey Hathaway,
executive director for the multi-agency U.S. Interdiction Coordinator.

A $91 million budget deficit forced the Coast Guard in February to reduce
air and sea patrols by 10 percent. The shortfall is the result of rising
fuel costs and salary increases that Congress approved without providing
the money to pay for them.

Meanwhile, traffickers have increased the use of small- and medium-size
boats to transport cocaine from South America to Mexico, the transit point
for an estimated two-thirds of U.S.-bound cocaine.

A decade ago, planes were the main transporters of cocaine.

The Coast Guard reported seizing about 70 tons of an estimated 626 tons
that traffickers tried to ship to the United States last year in
"noncommercial maritime transportation" - mostly go-fast boats and fishing
vessels.

Those figures, for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, represent an 11
percent interdiction rate - compared to 12 percent in 1999 and 10 percent
in 1998.

They fall short of the 18.7 percent goal the Coast Guard hoped to reach by
the 2002 fiscal year, which starts in October. With the cutback in patrols,
there is little hope of reaching those targets, Coast Guard Commandant Adm.
James Loy said in an interview.

Hathaway said he expects the interdiction rate to remain steady despite the
budget deficit because of improved intelligence and greater cooperation
among federal agencies.

The overall U.S. interdiction rate, which includes the Coast Guard figures,
was about 22 percent in the late 1990s, according to the White House drug
policy office. The 2000 rate hasn't been calculated yet.

Several lawmakers have expressed concerned about the Coast Guard's budget
shortfall, though they don't know if it will be addressed before the next
fiscal year begins.

"We've got to get their resources and capability back to where it should be
if we're going to make a serious attempt" to fight drugs, said Rep. John
Mica, R-Fla.

Transportation Secretary Norman Y. Mineta said last month he would support
adding money to the Coast Guard budget if Congress passes a supplemental
spending bill. The Coast Guard is a part of the Transportation Department.

President Bush has said he opposes a supplemental spending bill.

Stopping traffickers on the seas is often considered the toughest part of
interdiction. Oceans offer cocaine traffickers wide open areas with little
law enforcement.

"It is very difficult, once it is produced and it begins its transit to the
United States ... to chase those arrows once they've left the bow, to try
to catch them in flight or determine where they're going to land," Gen.
Peter Pace, head of the U.S. Southern Command, said in testimony to the
Senate Armed Services Committee last week.

Many experts say as long as U.S. cocaine use remains fairly steady - it is
estimated at just under 330 tons a year - traffickers will find ways to
meet the demand. But officials hope aggressive interdiction can at least
make trafficking more costly, driving up prices, and discouraging consumption.

U.S. drug officials stress the interdiction rates they calculate are
imprecise. While they can count the drugs they seize, there's no way of
knowing exactly what they miss.

"It's impossible to absolutely quantify how much cocaine is moving,"
Hathaway said.

The Customs Service, the other major federal agency involved in stopping
drug transports, doesn't set goals based on interdiction rates because of
the difficulty of judging how much is being shipped, spokesman Dennis
Murphy said.

The Coast Guard estimates are intended mostly for monitoring trafficking
trends so it can decide how best to use equipment and personnel, Hathaway
said. But the numbers are also used for performance targets.

While its seizures have risen from 41 tons in the 1998 fiscal year to 69
tons last year, Coast Guard estimates of the amount traffickers are trying
to ship in small- and medium-sized boats has increased from 411 tons in
1998 to 626 tons last year.

Those figures probably overstate the increase in shipments, Hathaway said.
Improvements in intelligence mean that shipments are now being identified
that might have been missed in the past.

Most Coast Guard seizures involve the work of a variety of agencies, such
as Customs and the Drug Enforcement Administration.