COLOMBIAN TERRORISTS MAY TARGET US INTERESTS

AS THE US-sponsored Plan Colombia moves into full swing, Colombian
terrorists are threatening to retaliate against US business and government
targets in Panama. The power vacuum created by the departure of US military
forces - combined with the absence of effective Panamanian law enforcement
and security capabilities - has seen Colombian extremists establish a
dominating presence deep inside Panamanian territory, placing American
lives and interests at risk.

Until now terrorists have limited their anti-US attacks in Panama, but the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) General Command recently
signaled a policy change if American plans for the ''snatching'' and
extradition of FARC commanders to the United States occurs or if Plan
Colombia significantly threatens FARC operations in the region.

The most likely initial target of a FARC campaign would be US businesses.
There are indications that the FARC has contingency plans to kidnap
American executives and their families for use as human shields to deter
US-led Colombian military assaults against FARC strongholds inside
Colombia. If Washington chooses to escalate, US diplomatic and military
personnel in Panama would be declared ''targets of war.'' Underscoring the
threat, the FARC General Command recently stated that they reserve ''the
right of first strike (against the United States) as a legitimate defense.''

Reported FARC surveillance of Panama-based American diplomats and
executives and possibly military assets and personnel underscores the
threat. At least two FARC ''target analysis teams'' are reportedly engaged
in pre-operational surveillance of American personnel. Last April, the
planned kidnapping of two American businessmen in Panama City by Colombian
guerrillas was frustrated after private security personnel disrupted the
operation.

In the past 20 years, nearly 120 American citizens have been kidnapped in
either Colombia or Panama's Darien region; at least 14 were killed while in
captivity. Colombian terrorist capabilities in Panama were repeatedly
demonstrated in 1999 and 2000 with dozens of kidnappings being carried out.

Despite multi-million dollar ransom payments, several hostages remain in
terrorist hands. Three American missionaries kidnapped in 1993 in Darien
were killed - on orders of FARC Commander Ivan Marquez - and then buried
near the Panamanian border town of La Bonga. FARC operations have
intensified in both rural and urban areas.

The potential for attacks against physical assets is also rising. FARC
leaders are apparently considering the mining of Manzanillo International
Terminal, an American-owned commercial seaport on Panama's Caribbean coast.

This facility is the largest American private investment in Panama and is
one of the principal seaports in Latin America. The FARC have utilized
mines in numerous rivers and waterways in southern and western Colombia,
including mining the Magdalena River, in an effort to deter US-sponsored
Colombian riverine patrols. A recent shipment of Syrian-origin naval mines
was transported through Panama to waiting FARC units near the Colombia port
of Buenaventura; these weapons could be deployed into the canal operating
area via small craft.

In addition to commercial interests, more than over 300 US military vessels
per year transit this area, thus raising the potential for attacks direct
or indirect on military shipping. The recent attack on the USS Cole in
Yemen, as well as mine-inflicted damage to US warships operating in the
Persian Gulf, vividly portray the potential high cost in American lives and
material.

In the face of this growing terrorist presence, the ability of the corrupt
Panamanian government to provide warning of terrorist activity, much less
effective response to a terrorist threat is doubtful.

Local security forces - a shadow of those previously provided by the US
military - are ill-equipped, vastly undermanned, and thoroughly unprepared
to challenge the experienced, narco-funded terrorists.

Moreover, the Panama Canal Authority has no counter-intelligence or
explosives ordnance capability. FARC use of mines or placement of
explosives on the canal locks would likely go undiscovered.

These security shortfalls were demonstrated in October 2000 when 200 FARC
militants assaulted the town of Nazareth. Local police had no advanced
warning and were unable to defend the populace. Despite a presidential
warning stating that Colombian intruders would face serious consequences in
the event of further attacks, both the FARC and right-wing paramilitaries
bluntly challenged the Panamanian leadership, threatening to ''light up'' -
implying a widespread terror campaign Panama City. Terrorist units have
since conducted repeated operations in the Darien region.

Given the critical importance of Panama to American commercial and military
interests, it is essential that Washington incorporate the growing
terrorist threat into its regional planning. To refrain from doing so not
only threatens existing American lives and assets, but risks drawing
America deeper into the Colombian morass.

Simon Drake, a former CIA analyst, is a security consultant.