DEA OFFICIAL SAYS AFGHAN OPIUM PRODUCTION IS FALLING

WASHINGTON - After initial skepticism, U.S. officials now believe that
Afghanistan's opium production has fallen sharply under a ban by the ruling
Taliban militia, a Drug Enforcement Administration official said Friday.

But concerns remain about how much opium poppy is already stockpiled in
Afghanistan and how long the Taliban will enforce the ban, said Steven
Casteel, the DEA's assistant administrator for intelligence.

Last year, Afghanistan produced nearly 75 percent of the world's opium, the
raw material for heroin. Most of that was sold in Europe.

But in July, the Taliban banned poppy production. The Islamic militia
controls 95 percent of Afghanistan.

U.N. inspectors concluded in March that almost all the plants had been
eliminated, but U.S officials were wary of Taliban claims.

"In the past they have been pretty good at playing the pea under the shell
game - saying laboratories were being dismantled ... and then we find out
they popped up someplace else," Casteel said.

Casteel said international inspectors following up the U.N. mission
confirmed that poppy had been eradicated. That was backed up by some
preliminary satellite images, he said.

"I am comfortable from a law enforcement perspective that there has been a
significant decrease in opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan," he said.

Despite the decrease, Afghan opium remains widely available, though at much
higher prices, Casteel said. He said Afghanistan may have stockpiled enough
opium to meet its share of the world market for two or three years.

A U.N. report last month accused the Taliban of using its supplies of opium
and heroin to finance its war against northern rebels and to train
terrorists. A Taliban official countered that most of the drugs were in
areas controlled by the opposition.

Casteel said another concern is whether Afghan farmers will resume
cultivating opium.

He noted because the ban was based on religion, the Taliban would have a
hard time allowing production in the future.

"My belief is that because they're backed into a corner, they're going to
have to give a fairly significant attempt to make this work," he said.

But he noted that farmers will need to make up for the lost income. Other
nations will have to help with crop substitution programs, he said.

"You've got to be prepared not just to pat them on the back and say 'good
job,' but to go in there and support them somehow," he said.

The Taliban have come under international criticism for its hardline
interpretation of Islam. It has prohibited most girls from going to school
and destroyed ancient statues, including two giant Buddhas. The U.N.
Security Council has imposed sanctions on the Taliban to pressure them to
turn over suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden for trial.