CRIME AND PRISONS: A COMPLEX EQUATION

Those nervous about crime may find comfort in news that in the past 10
years the number of Australian prison inmates increased 52 per cent and the
per capita rate of imprisonment rose 32 per cent. According to the
Australian Bureau of Statistics' Prisoners in Australia report, serious
offenders are also "doing more time". In Victoria, prisoner numbers, while
still relatively low, rose 36 per cent - almost all in the past five years.

A simple explanation may suggest itself: there has been a crime wave. In
fact, this is not the case. Victoria's overall crime rate has been the
nation's lowest for eight years.

At the end of 2000, it was lower than the peak of 1990-91. Assault and
murder rates are the nation's lowest by far (and Australia's murder rate
fell 12 per cent last year). This is not to say many don't deserve jail: 48
per cent were jailed for serious offences involving violence or threat of
violence.

But in this blur of statistics we should not lose sight of at least two
national tragedies.

First, we are adding to the weight of Aboriginal disadvantage with an
imprisonment rate almost 15 times that of the general population - for
which mandatory sentencing in the Northern Territory and Western Australia
bears a heavy blame.

Second, the impact of drug abuse is growing. Consider what crimes have
become more common: robbery and property crimes such as residential
burglary, car theft and theft from vehicles. About two-thirds of robberies
and residential burglaries are drug-related, and a similar proportion of
prisoners is in jail for drug-related crimes. Last month, even as Victorian
Police Minister Andre Haermeyer hailed "a continuing decline in violent
crime", he predicted a crime increase this year because of the heroin drought.

Long trial delays are further straining Victorian prisons; the average time
in custody on remand was an unacceptable 5.5 months.

Imprisonment, in whatever form, is costly, as shown by the state's $150
million plan for 900 new prison beds in the next decade.

A fraction of that could meet the demand for drug rehabilitation programs,
for which there is now a six-month wait.

Another factor in filling prisons has been the Kennett government's "truth
in sentencing" laws, which admittedly helped restore public confidence in
court sentences.

Even tougher policies in NT and WA have increased incarceration rates (the
NT rate is three times the national rate) without corresponding effects on
violent crime rates - which remain the nation's highest. That should not
surprise.

No jurisdiction in the world has yet demonstrated a clear link between the
amount of punishment and the amount of crime: the solutions are not that
easy. We must ensure that law-and-order policies do not, by filling
prisons, divert resources from resolving problems that should be dealt with
before they end up in the courts.