U.S. HARD-LINERS MAY BE GAINING IN COLOMBIA DEBATE

American Conservatives Are Running Out Of Patience With President
Andres Pastrana's Peace Process.

WASHINGTON -- Colombians have come up with a new joke about the
government policy of granting "demilitarized areas" to guerrilla
groups.

It says President Andres Pastrana is the most efficient leader in the
country's history: "When he took office, he received a country, and
by the time he leaves he will give us back three."

The joke came to mind while reading "Colombian Labyrinth," a U.S.
Air Force-sponsored study by the Rand Corp. that was released last
week. The report reflects the growing frustration in some Washington
foreign policy circles over Pastrana's peace offensive and the $1.3
billion U.S. "Plan Colombia" to provide anti-narcotics military aid
to the Colombian government.

The 113-page study, written by security analysts Angel Rabasa and
Peter Chalk, is critical of Pastrana's November 1998 decision to
withdraw government forces from a Switzerland-size area in
south-central Colombia as a gesture of goodwill to embark on peace
talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) leftist
guerrilla group.

Since then, Pastrana has offered a similar "demilitarized area" to
leftist National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels, and press reports have
suggested he may even offer one to rightist paramilitary troops. Both
the Clinton and Bush administrations have publicly given their full
support to Pastrana's peace efforts.

But the Rand Corp. study is the first U.S. government-funded study I
have seen that says publicly what growing numbers of U.S. officials
have been saying privately: that the peace talks are not going
anywhere, and that the rebels -- far from being defeated -- are
getting stronger.

Referring to the "demilitarized area" effectively conceded to the
FARC guerrillas, the study says that "this 'state within a state'
constitutes a major strategic asset for the FARC. The FARC uses this
sanctuary as a base for launching operations, resting and refitting
its forces, moving and refining drugs, stockpiling arms, and even
holding prisoners and hostages."

Rebels Growing

The FARC rebels have grown from 350 fighters in the mid-1960s to
about 3,600 in 1986, to nearly 20,000 nowadays.

And thanks to the guerrilla group's growing ties to drug trafficking,
it has become a formidable adversary that the poorly equipped
Colombian army will not be able to defeat under current conditions,
the study says.

It criticizes the U.S. government's anti-narcotics military aid to
the Pastrana government for being based on the "doubtful" premise
that cracking down on the drug traffickers will automatically reduce
the leftist guerrillas' funding, and thus weaken the rebels
militarily.

This will not happen, because the leftist guerrillas have other
sources of funding, such as kidnappings, it says.

"The United States ought to rethink whether this distinction between
counternarcotics and counterinsurgency can be sustained, and whether
Colombia and its allies can be successful in the war against drugs if
the Colombian government fails to regain control of its territory,"
it says.

Asked in a telephone interview what the study proposes, co-author
Rabasa told me the U.S. government should provide more military aid
to help fight the rebels. This does not mean sending U.S. combat
troops, but stepping up U.S. military training and equipment
assistance, he said.

Hmmm. It's clear that something is changing in U.S. views about
Colombia. Conservatives are running out of patience to continue
paying lip service to Pastrana's peace process, and liberals are
running out of arguments to keep praising it as a successful effort
to end Colombia's war.

"You are seeing more of a hard-line thinking that the United States
should go from a counternarcotics to a military solution," says
Michael Shifter, a Colombia specialist with the middle-of-the-road
Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.

"That's troubling, because it threatens with an escalation of violence."

Bruce Bagley, a Colombia watcher with the University of Miami, says
that "the danger is that we will get into a major war there, and
that the United States will be sucked into it, first through
advisors, and then with elite combat troops."

Possible Standoff

Washington may be heading toward a standoff on Colombia: While the
Bush administration may be increasingly sympathetic to stepping up
U.S. counter-insurgency aid, the new Democratic-controlled Senate
will probably demand more stringent human rights conditions on any
future U.S. aid to the Colombian army.

My own guess: We will see a growing shift in support of both greater
U.S. anti-guerrilla aid, and greater human rights conditions on it.
The prevailing sense of humor in Washington will not allow the joke
about Colombia breaking up into three countries to become a reality.