U.S. SHOULD ANALYZE EFFECTIVENESS OF DRUG POLICY

The nation has long struggled to reconcile two approaches to control
illegal drug use - to view it as an illness that can be treated, or as a
crime that should be punished. Drug policy has reflected both ideas.
However, the way the nation spends money clearly demonstrates the current
emphasis.

Expenditures on drug enforcement have increased almost tenfold since the
1980s. These include measures to limit the manufacture, sale or use of
illegal drugs, as well as international policies to reduce the supply of
drugs through crop eradication and the disruption of drug trafficking. Of
the $19 billion the federal government spends each year on drug control,
approximately $12 billion is dedicated to enforcement.

Criminal justice figures also tell the same story. In 1998, for example,
1.6 million people were arrested for drug offenses -three times as many as
in 1980 - and 289,000 drug offenders landed in state prisons - 12 times the
number in 1980.

And yet, even though tough enforcement policies have been in place for many
years now, it still is not clear how these measures affect illegal drug
use. I recently chaired a committee of the National Research Council that
examined the data and research available to inform U.S. drug policies. We
found that the nation lacks the necessary information to gauge the
effectiveness of current enforcement activities. For a public policy of
this magnitude, that is simply unconscionable.

It is increasingly clear that the nation has set its enforcement policy
without the benefit of scientific evidence. For every $100 spent on drug
enforcement at the federal level, less than $1 is spent on gathering
crucial data and conducting research. In contrast, an infrastructure has
been in place since the mid-1970s to study the effectiveness of drug
prevention and treatment programs. Although there is still much to be
learned, progress is being made.

A major goal of enforcement is to reduce drug supply and drive up costs,
thereby cutting consumption. But assessing whether that is indeed occurring
is severely hampered by the absence of adequate, reliable data on the
quantity of drugs that users consume and the prices that they pay.

It appears that current enforcement policy has increased drug prices
relative to what they otherwise would be. But we do not know the degree to
which higher costs have decreased drug use, or which users have been most
affected. Moreover, we do not know which drug control measures actually
affected drug costs, or the magnitude of the price increase.

However, better data alone will not yield an understanding of effective
drug-enforcement policy. The nation needs to establish a substantial
research program to determine how drug traffickers and users respond to
enforcement efforts. To design effective programs, policymakers should know
the extent to which producers and traffickers thwart enforcement in one
geographic area by moving their smuggling routes or production elsewhere. A
better understanding also is needed of the typical time lag between
successful enforcement operations and changes in the way that producers and
traffickers conduct business.

A rational drug policy must take into account the costs and benefits of
drug penalties. In particular, the nation needs research that shows how the
severity of penalties affects illegal drug use. To what extent do current
criminal and other sanctions deter initiation and intensification of drug
use? As matters stand, we do not know.

Taking the steps needed to gather the right kind of information won't be
easy. However, armed with this knowledge, the nation might finally be able
to stop debating and develop a coherent, effective drug policy.