THE PRISON BINGE AT BAY?

A remarkable event took place in the last half of 2000: The nation's ranks
of prison inmates actually declined. The last time that happened was in 1972.

Does this development signal the end of the nation's incarceration binge?
Or is it just a lull?

Free will, not immutable forces of nature, is at play here. The nation will
choose which path to take with the policies it employs. America should try
relying less on incarceration and more on cost-effective ways to reduce crime.

It will take some doing, because the United States has put into place over
the past two decades initiatives that have made it the world's champion
jailer. What's more, the incarceration craze could pick up steam anew,
particularly as the impact of truth-in-sentencing policies start to show
up. Many states have adopted such policies, in which the judge at
sentencing prescribes the precise amount of time to be served in prison and
the precise amount on parole. In traditional sentencing, the judge
prescribes the total time to be served in the custody of the state, and a
parole board determines within limits how to split that time between prison
and parole. Truth-in-sentencing is expected to lengthen the time inmates
spend in prison.

Note, too, that the slowdown is happening only among state prisons,
according to a U.S. Justice Department report. Ominously, the inmate boom
is continuing practically unabated in federal penitentiaries. Congress
adopted some features of truth-in-sentencing at the federal level well
before states did. It also has prescribed the minimum length of time
offenders must serve for many crimes. Both measures are helping to swell
inmate ranks.

After years of steep increases, Wisconsin recorded a modest 2% annual jump
in its inmate population in 2000. But that followed a torrid increase in
prisoners during the 1990s. Citing conflicting reporting methods, the
Justice Department study declined to calculate the rate at which the number
of inmates expanded here. But our calculations indicate that prisoner ranks
in Wisconsin grew by 169% during the decade, behind top-ranked Idaho (182%)
and ahead of Texas (164%). In short, the number may be too fuzzy to rank
Wisconsin precisely second; it isn't so fuzzy as to obscure the state's
unfortunate rank among the leaders.

Harder numbers show that female inmates jumped almost fourfold in Wisconsin
during the '90s - the fifth-biggest increase among the states.

Wisconsin went on a tear to accommodate the new inmates, ranking seventh in
expanding prison capacity, which grew by 165%. Nonetheless, the state wound
up the decade with prisons second only to New Hampshire in crowding (131%
vs. 141% of capacity) - demonstrating the difficulty of building your way
out of congestion.

But Wisconsin also has passed truth-in-sentencing, so galloping increases
loom as a possibility here.

Prisons have consumed bigger and bigger chunks of public budgets, squeezing
money for such vital needs as health care and education. In fact, weariness
over pouring fortunes into prisons may be prompting states to wise up.
Fiscal reality may be making alternative ways to punish offenders stylish,
helping to reduce the inmate population. More rational sentences for
non-violent drug offenders, for example, would be a wise step.

Providing better and more comprehensive programs aimed at drug prevention
and treatment also would help, as would investment in early education of
at-risk youngsters.

To make a trend of the decline in prisoners, the nation must aggressively
pursue such programs, tone down some of the overly harsh criminal justice
policies instituted over the last two decades and better prevent innocent
children from turning into hardened criminals in the first place.