MAN WITHOUT A PLAN

Colin Powell Travels To Bogota But Has No Quick Fixes For What Some Are
Calling A $1.3 Billion 'Catastrophe'

Fred Ayres, once an unlikely linchpin for U.S. policy in Colombia, has now
become a perfect symbol of Washington's failures there.

The owner of a foundering Georgia-based aviation firm, Ayres had just filed
for protection under bankruptcy laws last year when the State Department
awarded him a $22 million contract to supply nine Turbo-Thrush airplanes
badly needed for counternarcotics missions.

Ayres's armor-plated planes were supposed to be used to spray chemical
herbicides over Colombia's burgeoning coca and opium crops. But they won't
be getting off the ground any time soon -- if ever. A few weeks ago, just
when the first planes were to be delivered, Ayres's chief creditor
foreclosed. Now, says Ayres, his half-built planes "are just sitting there
on the assembly line" gathering dust. "I feel terrible about this."

Not as bad as some U.S. drug warriors.

Many of them fear that Plan Colombia, the $1.3 billion program to combat
drug traffic from the Andean nation, may be as bankrupt as Ayres's company.

The plane snafu, in fact, is among the lesser setbacks -- compared with,
say, the unending war with leftist guerrillas or the growing role of
right-wing paramilitaries in the Colombian drug trade.

The plan's shortcomings will give Secretary of State Colin Powell plenty to
talk about this week on his first visit to the disintegrating nation.

A State Department official told reporters Powell wants a "frank" talk with
President Andres Pastrana about "what has worked and what hasn't." The
answer, many U.S. officials fear, is that precious little has. Says one
congressional staffer: "What's happening down there is a catastrophe."

Plan Colombia was overwhelmingly approved as an "emergency" response by
Congress more than a year ago and vigorously pushed by President Clinton.
Bush-administration officials, pursuing the new president's keen interest
in developing hemispheric ties, signed off on the program in their first
weeks in office and even endorsed an $880 million "Andean regional
initiative" that expanded key elements to neighboring countries.

But the United States has been spraying chemical herbicides in Colombia for
years -- to virtually no effect.

In fact, State Department officials acknowledge, coca production since the
mid-1990s has soared 250 percent while Colombia's opium-poppy crop, which
barely existed five years ago, is now the source of 50 percent of the
heroin seized in the United States.

The growth is largely attributed to the strength of the biggest leftist
guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The
guerrillas protect peasants growing the drug crops and take a large chunk
of the profits.

As part of a peace overture, Pastrana has ceded a large area in southern
Colombia to the FARC that was to be a demilitarized zone. But U.S.
officials fear the zone has simply become a "safe haven" for terrorists and
drug traffickers -- a message Powell intends to deliver to Pastrana this
week. Meanwhile, equally ruthless right-wing paramilitaries are getting
into the game, as they take over prime coca-growing turf.

As if that weren't bad enough, the campaign to douse large parts of the
country with herbicides -- ineffective as it may be against drugs -- is
being attacked for its environmental impact.

This month the Colombian comptroller general called for an immediate
suspension of spraying, citing what he called "irreversible damage." Even
Pastrana may have second thoughts. He told reporters last week that a new
"evaluation" of the fumigation program was needed.

American officials insist those concerns are overwrought. Officially, the
State Department remains bullish. (Last week it hailed Colombians for
extraditing notorious trafficker Fabio Ochoa to face U.S. charges.)
Officials also point to a U.S.-backed offensive in the guerrilla-controlled
Putumayo region earlier this year that eliminated 25,000 hectares of coca
growth. "It's sort of like establishing a beachhead in an amphibious
operation," says a U.S. official. "We've secured the beach -- and the first
reports from the field are promising." A question Powell must ask himself
is whether such officials are right -- or have their heads in the sand.