WAR ON TERRORISM THREATENS WAR ON DRUGS

The U.S. war on terrorism could threaten the success of a battle that
Washington has been waging since Nancy Reagan first urged America to
``just say no'' nearly 20 years ago.

U.N. officials said Thursday the current crisis gripping Afghanistan
in the wake of the attacks on Washington and New York could undermine
the ``remarkable'' progress the Taliban-ruled area of the country has
made in halting drug production.

Despite being considered a pariah by almost every government in the
world, Afghanistan's ruling Taliban have succeeded in virtually
wiping out poppy farming in areas they control.

And they have done this voluntarily, without compensation to the
farmers who depend on the crop for their livelihood, and without the
promise of reward or international recognition for doing so.

``It has been a remarkable achievement,'' said Bernard Frahi, the
regional representative for the U.N.'s Office for Drug Control and
Crime Prevention for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Last year, some 200,000 acres of poppies were cultivated in
Afghanistan, producing 75 percent of the world's heroin supply and
nearly 90 percent of Europe's. But this year the United Nations
believes not a single acre may have been grown in the 95 percent of
Afghanistan controlled by the Taliban.

The same is not true, however, of areas controlled by the opposition
Northern Alliance, where what used to amount to 10 percent of
Afghanistan's opium is still produced.

The United Nations is still compiling its latest report, but a
spokesman said if the trend of the last two years continued, the
Taliban could be credited with carrying out the most successful
drug-eradication programs in history.

The turnaround came when the Taliban's spiritual leader, Mullah
Mohammad Omar, issued an edict last year declaring the cultivation of
narcotic crops as ``un-Islamic.''

Severe Punishment

Mullah Omar's edicts are strictly enforced by the Taliban's religious
police -- officially known as the Department for the Promotion of
Virtue and Prevention of Vice -- and severe punishments are meted out
to those who flout them.

``It could be a turning point,'' Kemal Kurspahic told Reuters from
Geneva. ``It is a historic opportunity to seriously undermine the
world's supply of opiate derivatives and heroin.''

The U.N. drug office assists countries in trying to persuade farmers
to growing alternative crops and raising funds to help them make the
transition.

Little known is the fact that the United States has contributed
significantly to those programs in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.

Officials say, however, that all the recent successes could be
undermined by the current crisis and a change of regime in Kabul
could swing the pendulum the other way.

``In the current atmosphere it is impossible to say something good
about the Taliban, but the fact is they have a much better record
than the Northern Alliance or previous regimes,'' said a Western
diplomat who asked not to be named.

``You cannot say that any change of government would result in the
drug policy still being enforced. In fact, most of my colleagues
believe the opposite is true.''

Other officials say the Taliban may have no qualms about reversing
their anti-drug edict if they need to raise money to defend
themselves against a United States-led effort to unseat them.

In previous years, the Taliban imposed a tax on poppy farmers that
netted their meager treasury around $10 million a year, according to
the U.N.

The farmers made around $90 million last year from the sale of opium
resin extracted from poppy bulbs. With heroin selling for around $200
per gram in Europe, the street value is billions of dollars.

In the short term, however, the crisis is likely to reduce the amount
of heroin reaching the streets of the West as increased security
along Afghanistan's borders by its neighbors will restrict outflows
of opium and heroin processed from last year's crop.

``People are not going to feel pressure immediately, and we don't
really know how much heroin may be stockpiled by the traffickers,''
Kurspahic said.

``But it will be felt -- perhaps next year when the result of no crop
from this year develops. Purity will go down, prices will rise and
shortages will result.''