Special Report: Aftermath of Terror

OFFICIALS FEAR OPIUM SUPPLY WILL CUT DRUG PRICES, LINE THE TALIBAN'S POCKET

BRUSSELS (AP) -- Officials believe Afghan opium traders are flooding
markets in order to make quick money ahead of a feared U.S. retaliatory
strike on the country accused of harboring suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden.

The officials believe the new flood of supply could potentially lead to
lower prices for illegal drugs and more tax money for the Taliban rulers in
Afghanistan.

The selloff following the Sept. 11 terror attacks has partly led to a sharp
decrease of about 80% in the price of opium in Afghanistan, the world's
leading supplier. Lower prices have yet to be felt on the streets of Europe
where most of the opium ends up, law-enforcement officials say.

Production of opium -- a derivative of poppies and the raw material for
heroin -- has been an important source of revenue for Afghanistan's ruling
Taliban. The group has earned tens of millions of dollars by taxing poppy
farmers and traffickers.

In a speech Tuesday, British Prime Minister Tony Blair accused the Taliban
of controlling "the biggest drugs hoard in the world." The opium stockpile
accounts for 90% of the heroin sold in Britain, according to government
figures.

"The arms the Taliban are buying today are paid for with the lives of young
British people buying their drugs on British streets," Mr. Blair said.
"That is another part of their regime that we should seek to destroy." (See
the text of Mr. Blair's speech.)

Last year, the Taliban imposed a ban on growing poppy, an industry the
hard-line rulers deemed "un-Islamic." But the ban applied only to
cultivation, and officials believe drug trading continues from a stockpile
estimated at 2,900 tons -- more than a year's supply.

"One could say that farmers trying to flee and people who have the stocks
are trying to make some cash and go to a safe place," said Mohammad
Amirkhizi, senior policy adviser at the United Nations Office for Drug
Control and Crime Prevention, located in Vienna.

Mr. Amirkhizi said his agency wasn't mandated to determine who controls the
opium stocks, although he said there have been links "between the Taliban
and production because of their tax system."

A U.S. official said on condition of anonymity that the Taliban likely is
behind the sudden increase in opium that is making its way into Europe and
Asia. "I think it is very much in control of the Taliban," the official said.

The 2000 opium crop, which was sold at $30 per kilogram before the ban on
new cultivation, brought in roughly $100 million for farmers and tens of
millions of dollars in taxes for the Taliban, who collect 10% from farmers
- -- no matter what the crop -- and 20% from traders.

In London this week, Mr. Blair's office said Afghan traders were "unloading
stock" more quickly onto the market. The ban on cultivation in July 2000
sent the price soaring to a peak of $700 last March, pushing the Taliban's
take even higher. The U.S. believes Mr. bin Laden and his al Qaeda network
raise money through a variety sources, including illegal opium and weapons
trafficking.

Bernard Frahi, the U.N. agency's regional representative in Pakistan, said
that since the terror attacks, however, the price has fallen back down to
$120 a kilogram. Some of that drop can be attributed to a rush of people
selling "whatever they have to get cash before a military attack," he said.

Law-enforcement and drug-control agencies in London, Amsterdam and
elsewhere say they haven't noticed any change yet in heroin prices on the
street, where a gram goes for anywhere from $20 in the Netherlands to $235
in Sweden. Swings in raw-material prices usually take months to filter
down, they say.

Doubts also are increasing about whether the Taliban will be able to keep
its cultivation ban in place if they come under attack -- meaning prices
may stay down long-term. "You cannot punish a tribe for planting poppies
and at the same time ask them to take up weapons to defend you," Mr. Frahi
said.