OUTLOOK UNCLEAR FOR PRISON JOBS

Shrinking Inmate Population Leads To Cutbacks As Crime Rate Plummets

The state's prison system, which for years has provided a steady source of
jobs in the North Country, faces uncertain times as the number of inmates
has begun to decline.

State officials and prison experts aren't predicting any dramatic changes
in employment levels in the years ahead, but it's far from clear whether
the number of inmates will ever resume the steady growth pattern that was
seen in the last three decades of the 20th century.

And there are some indicators, especially the dramatic reduction in the
state's crime rate during the past decade, that suggest the state's prisons
will no longer be a growth industry.

Already, the state has imposed hiring freezes in the past year at many of
its 70 prisons, including the Mount McGregor Correctional Facility in
Wilton and the Moriah Shock Incarceration Camp, a boot-camp-style facility
in Essex County.

In addition, the state has moved to eliminate about 600 correction officer
positions statewide, or about 3 percent, through attrition. The cuts are
affecting four correction officer positions and 13 other jobs at Mount
McGregor.

The cuts come as the number of inmates in the state's prisons, after
steadily increasing for most of the past three decades, has leveled off and
begun to decline.

As of last month, according to the state Commission of Corrections, there
were 68,417 inmates in state prisons. That figure is down by nearly 3,500,
or 5 percent, from the high of 71,864 at the end of 1999.

The state Department of Correctional Services, which runs the state's
prison system, says the decrease is the result of a deliberate state effort
to reduce the number of inmates by offering certain nonviolent offenders
alternatives to prison. Those alternatives include intensive drug treatment
programs and "shock incarceration" programs in boot-camp-style facilities.

The Correctional Services Department says those alternatives have led to
more than 36,000 nonviolent offenders earning early release from prison
since 1995. Of those offenders, 5,097 would still be in prison without the
initiative, officials said.

But the incidence of violent crime in New York has been declining steadily
for the past 10 years, especially in New York City, which traditionally has
accounted for the bulk of the inmate population in upstate prisons.
Statewide, the number of reports of the seven "index" crimes the FBI ranks
as the most serious -- murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary,
larceny and motor vehicle theft -- has fallen from a peak of 1.14 million
in 1990 to just less than 602,000 in 1999, the most recent year for which
statistics are available.

The New York State Correctional Officers and Police Benevolent Association,
the union that represents state correction officers, says it's concerned
about the cutbacks. But Dennis Fitzpatrick, a spokesman for the union, said
last week that he believes the inmate population will level off over time
and that correctional officer jobs will be relatively safe. He noted that
the state currently is hiring some new correction officers.

Robert Gangi, a spokesman for the watchdog group Correctional Association
of New York, also said he thinks future layoffs are doubtful. He predicted
that state officials will try hard to accomplish any job cuts through
attrition rather than layoffs.

Gangi said he expects prison populations to continue to decline for at
least another two years. Beyond that, he said, it is difficult to predict.

One unknown is whether the state will make major changes to drug laws
enacted in the 1970s that set long, mandatory prison terms for many drug
offenses. Gov. George Pataki and state legislators have been seriously
discussing a reform of the so-called Rockefeller drug laws to allow for
drug treatment programs as an alternative to mandatory sentences for
nonviolent offenders. Supporters of the reform effort also want to allow
appeals court judges to reduce some longer drug-related sentences.

"The effect that that would have is to continue to drive the prison
population down, because low-level, nonviolent people who are now doing
prison time would get diverted from the system," Gangi said.

One part of the proposed reform could offset the use of alternative
sentences, however, by removing the possibility of parole for drug felons
who possess firearms.

Gangi said the New York City mayoral race that's now under way could also
have an effect on prison populations as well.

Since Mayor Rudolph Giuliani took office, he explained, police arrest
policies in New York City have focused on "quality-of-life crimes" that
typically don't result in prison sentences. But if the next mayor puts more
focus back on serious crimes, the number of future prison inmates could
increase, Gangi said.

Since 1994, New York City has led the state in statewide reduction in
reports of serious crimes. According to statistics from the state Division
of Criminal Justice Services, New York City has experienced a 45 percent
decrease in index crimes since 1994, compared with a 19 percent drop in the
Capital Region, which includes Saratoga, Warren and Washington counties.

One factor that could lead to new increases in the prison population,
however, is the economy.

Fitzpatrick predicted that as the economy sours, the crime rate -- and the
growth in the prison population -- may rebound. Typically when the economy
goes down, he said, crime goes up.