NEVADA VOTERS: QUESTIONS UNLIKELY TO INFLUENCE RACES

Nevadans who turn out on Election Day primarily to cast a vote on a proposed
constitutional ban on gay marriage or the legalization of marijuana for
medical use are not expected to significantly influence state or national
political races, according to some observers.

"I don't think either question favors one party over another," said
University of Nevada, Reno political science professor Eric Herzik.

Question 2, which would give state constitutional protection to the
definition of marriage as being between a man and a woman will bring out
conservative voters, but opponents will also be motivated to turn out, he
said.

"My feeling is that more people on the right than left are mobilized by this
issue," Herzik said. "But ideological issues like this bring out partisans
from both sides, and they usually cancel each other out," he said.

There is broad support across the political spectrum for Question 2, but
supporters of the measure will not necessarily cast their votes for GOP
presidential candidate George W. Bush over Democratic nominee Al Gore, he
said.

Rory Reid, state chairman of the Democratic Party, said most voters will be
motivated to go to the polls by the presidential and state races, not
because of a strong desire to vote on either Question 2 or Question 9, the
latter of which would allow doctors to prescribe marijuana to patients.

"We're focusing on our candidates and getting our voters out for our
candidates," he said. "There is no way to know how the votes on those
questions will impact the races. But people are more energized about the
candidates than initiative issues."

So for other candidates seeking election to partisan offices in Nevada on
Nov. 7, there likely will be no piggy-backing off any huge turnout for the
controversial ballot questions, according to these observers. But state
Republican Party Chairman Bob Seale said Question 2 could very well help the
Republican ticket in Nevada.

"I think Question 2 will bring traditionally Republican voters to the polls,
and I think it will help candidates 'down ballot' (in local races) as much
as 'up ballot' (the presidential and Senate races)."

Seale said he does not have a sense of what impact the medicinal marijuana
initiative will have on the races. But Liz Moore, campaign manager for Equal
Rights Nevada, a group organized to oppose Question 2, said the group's
uphill efforts to defeat the gay marriage ban could be aided by the
marijuana question.

"When I was doing voter registration, I talked to a group of young men who
were registered but who didn't know about any issue except Question 9," she
said. "They knew the number of the question and everything about it. The
issue may bring out young voters, who could help our effort."

Richard Ziser, chairman of the Coalition for the Protection of Marriage,
said he does not know what effect turnout for Question 9 might have on the
group's marriage proposal.

"We're not taking a position on medical marijuana," he said. "But if the
issue draws voters with a libertarian bent, then we could benefit. Question
2 is about states' rights; about not having a judge in some other state
telling as what to do."

UNR's Herzik said medicinal marijuana won't likely have an impact on races
because it "is a pretty idiosyncratic issue. It cuts across ideological
lines."

Both questions are likely to pass, he said.

The medical marijuana proposal already has passed once, in 1998, by a large
margin. If it succeeds again Nov. 7, the Legislature will be required to
draft a law implementing the measure.

Moore said there is evidence to suggest that younger voters are not as
supportive of Question 2 as other demographic groups, and that their
interest among young people in the marijuana issue could help the
anti-Question 2 effort.

A poll conducted by the Coalition for the Protection of Marriage found that
support for Question 2 is far lower among younger voters than older voters.
The poll found that 55 percent of those ages 18 to 24 support Question 2,
compared to 50 percent for those ages 25 to 34 and 74 percent for those age
65 and older.

If the younger voters turn out on Election Day, Question 2 could face a
tougher challenge than polls so far would indicate, Moore said.

Polls still show strong overall support for Question 2, however.

Ziser said his group's poll shows overall support for the measure among
likely voters at about 65 percent. The measure will have to pass again in
2002 before it can take effect.

But voter turnout is a key, and Herzik said so far the presidential race and
other political contests do not seem to be generating much excitement.

Susan Morandi, deputy secretary of state for elections, said the projected
turnout is 60 percent among active voters, the same percentage of voters who
turned out for the 1996 presidential contest. Only 23 percent of active
voters turned out for the Sept. 5 primary.

Note: Analysts say Question 2, Question 9 likely won't affect other
contests.