STUDY QUESTIONS DRUG MEASURE FIGURES

Savings Of Treatment Instead Of Prison Term May Have Been Overstated

Proponents of a ballot measure that would mandate treatment rather than
jail for most non-violent drug offenders may have overstated the tax money
that would be saved because relatively few of those offenders get jail now,
according to a study by the criminal justice research program of the Rand Corp.

More broadly, according to the report, there is precious little information
now available on which to judge the potential effectiveness of the pro-drug
treatment Proposition 36 for reducing drug and alcohol use. The study
released Thursday suggests that the state undertake a number of studies to
track the efficacy of drug treatment, whether the controversial measure
passes or fails Nov. 7.

However, a competing study by two San Francisco State University
researchers says taxpayers aren't getting their money's worth now from
jailing drug addicts.

San Francisco State economics professors C. Daniel Vencill and Zagros
Sadjadi estimate the drug war will cost an average taxpayer $368 in state
taxes and $117 in federal taxes this year. The university researchers'
report will appear in an upcoming journal of the Justice Policy Institute,
a liberal San Francisco-based think tank funded in part by a key financial
backer of Proposition 36.

The Rand report, meanwhile, faults the initiative on other grounds,
concluding that it would leave much of the implementation of its provisions
to the discretion of prosecutors, courts, probation and parole officials
because it does not create a separate entity to interpret it.

If the measure passes, the Rand paper recommends studies to determine what
crimes, if any, those treated go on to commit, discover whether prosecutors
alter their plea-bargain processes, and assess the severity of drug
problems among the general population.

If it fails, Rand said, the state should try a pilot program to assess the
impact of such a program on drug use and on the criminal-justice and
social-service systems.

Other findings:

There is substantial doubt over exactly how many will actually qualify for
the program. Proponents claim 37,000 a year.

Failure of the proposition to provide funds for drug testing is a serious flaw.

The Proposition 36 population may not do as well as others in treatment
because of lack of motivation (jail or prison if they fail).

The $120 million allocated to implement the measure may fall short of
covering increased court and probation costs.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.